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Estimate: Corona death risk for seniors doubled
Corona is particularly dangerous for the elderly. A mathematician has now analyzed this more precisely: with increasing age, not only does the risk of dying within a year increase, but it is even more than double for those infected with corona over 60 years of age than for healthy people Of the same. years. And not only that: from the age of 60, the gap between the risk of dying from corona and the general risk of aging, which also applies to healthy people, becomes faster and larger for infected people. .
This is what Stuttgart math professor Christian Hesse calculated from data from Germany and international studies on so-called mortality from infections. That’s the ratio of deaths per crown among all those infected, whether they have been tested or not. To do this, the immunological status of a representative sample of the population had to be determined with blood samples in order to also determine previous undetected corona infections.
The same applies to healthy people: the risk of dying in a year is naturally much lower for young people. However, it doubles on average every seven years. There are also greater gender differences among the youngest. For uninfected men in their 20s, according to Hesse, the probability of dying in one year is 0.042 percent. “For women, the corresponding value of 0.018 percent is less than half as high at this age.” A woman has only the risk of death as a 20-year-old man at the age of 34. This difference decreases over the years, Hesse explained. About 88-year-old men and 90-year-old women are comparable in terms of risk.
Since young people in particular have little or no symptoms after a corona infection and the disease progresses less dramatically, the median mortality from infection for both sexes in 20-year-olds is only 0.006 percent, so the risk natural death increases only slightly. It is different with older people infected with corona. “Around age 60, the risk of dying from a corona infection is roughly the same as the normal risk of age,” says Hesse.
“In concrete terms, this means that a corona infection doubles the effective risk of death for people in their 60s,” explained the mathematician. “As a result, when it comes to risk, it’s like he’s suddenly got seven years older from the infection.” At 90 years of age, the mortality from corona is 28 percent, which is a good 10 percentage points higher than the general rate. Mortality in old age.
