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Julia Köppe The Mirror
»The decrease in the number of infections will depend largely on the extent to which people restrict their contacts during Christmas. And of course that is difficult in a party that is usually spent with the family “.
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Christmas in family. Due to the corona pandemic, this is only possible to a limited extent. In almost every federal state, only one household and four other people from close families can get together during the holidays. Children up to 14 years old are exempt.
More than 1.5 million people have been infected with the corona virus in Germany since the pandemic began and more than 24,000 have died. The strict lockdown, which has been in effect across the country since December 16 and initially until January 10, now aims to slow down the infection process.
Julia Köppe The Mirror
“I think it makes sense to postpone closure until the number of infections has dropped to a low level, otherwise we will probably grow back. And in the worst case, a light closure and a forced closure would always alternate. in the long term it would have serious consequences for both the health system and the economy. “
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Above all, regions that currently have around 100 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants in seven days could reduce the number of infections sufficiently with the closure in early January. In some regions, however, there are more than 500 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants. It should take much longer for the number of cases to drop back to a controllable level.
Julia Köppe The Mirror
»You have to wonder, of course, how sensible this pattern of 50 new infections per 100,000 people is. Because originally stricter measurements should be applied from this value, it is now the value for relaxation. That contradicts itself. “
Recently, scientists advocated for an incidence of 10 new infections in Europe. Once this has been achieved, significantly more easing will be possible and there will be enough room to react to rising numbers. There is great hope that something will return to normal soon.
Julia Köppe The Mirror
»The crown crisis will, of course, not end at the turn of the year, but I am sure we can expect noticeable relief from the middle of the year. Because there is currently a lot of evidence that we can start vaccines this year. The great advantage is that we can protect patients and medical personnel at high risk of serious diseases. What we lack is a drug that prevents serious diseases. “
As things stand today, the first people in Germany should get vaccinated at the end of December. Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn also announced that around twelve million doses of vaccines will be available in the first quarter of 2021. That’s enough for six million people, since everyone needs two injections. However, to vaccinate all citizens, the Federal Republic would need more than 160 million doses.
Julia Köppe The Mirror
“I think we must emphasize that it will be the beginning of the comeback. And this 60 percent, which was often cited as a value for achieving herd immunity, should be treated with caution at this point. This is mainly because we will vaccinate high risk patients and the elderly at first. But until the number of infections drops significantly, the younger people in particular should be vaccinated, because they are the ones with many contacts and therefore can infect more people. And there is another factor: at the moment we do not even know if the vaccine really prevents infections and if those vaccinated are no longer contagious. “
It will probably be several months before we realize it. Even if most high-risk groups were successfully vaccinated in the next summer, it would be dangerous to lift all protective measures immediately.
Julia Köppe The Mirror
“Christian Drosten assumes, for example, that if there was a far-reaching relaxation in the summer because there is a vaccine and high-risk patients are protected, younger and younger people who have not yet been vaccinated could become infected. Of course, they generally have a lower risk of getting seriously ill. But even with them difficult courses occur. Therefore, it is quite possible that later we will also see younger and younger patients in intensive care units. My great wish for next year would therefore be a reliable drug that can prevent a severe course of Covid-19. “
With the turn of the year, there aren’t many changes at first, at least not for most people. It could be until 2022 before everyone who wants to get vaccinated.
