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“If politicians do not follow this advice, then I have lost my faith in politics here in Germany.” This is what virologist Melanie Brinkmann of the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research in Braunschweig (HZI) said on December 8 in the “Topics of the day”.
In the statement, he referred to a position paper published shortly before by the German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina, in which he urged politicians to “largely rest” public life from Christmas to January 10. “I would say the sooner the better,” Brinkmann added.
Five days later, the federal and state governments reacted: As of Wednesday, public life in Germany will be closed (an overview of the measures can be found here). The rules should initially apply until January 10. Experts are confident that the number of infections can be significantly reduced over time. However, whether that is enough to get the pandemic under control again depends on a deciding factor.
The higher the number, the longer it takes to counter
“For the measures to be sufficient, they must be implemented consistently,” writes Viola Priesemann, an expert in modeling propagation processes at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization in Göttingen, when requested by SPIEGEL. “A confinement is everything or not. Otherwise, the measures will vanish. “
She still sees potential in home office regulations. “Similar to school closure, we would need a home office requirement until incidences are well below 50,” said the researcher looking at the number of new infections per 100,000 residents in seven days. When presence is required, it should be verified if the hygiene rules are being observed.
So a good portion of the counties could reach seven-day incidences below 50 per 100,000 by January 10, so that chains of infection could be tracked again and more easily contained and mitigation again justifiable.
“For all federal states and all districts that are not clearly below the 50 limit, the lockdown needs to be broadened or strengthened from a scientific point of view,” Priesemann said. Regions with a high number of cases endanger the control and security of neighboring regions.
An accurate forecast for the next few weeks is difficult, Priesemann said. »Are the rules being over-followed or circumvented? I can’t predict that. “
Corona fatigue risk
Thorsten Lehr, a clinical pharmacy expert at the University of Saarland and developer of the Covid simulator, sees the situation similarly, but warns that this time it will likely be harder to press the numbers than in March.
Lehr assumes that counties with an incidence of fewer than 100 new infections today will reach an area where outbreaks can be controlled again in seven days per 100,000 residents by January 10. For everyone else, it might take longer.
In the spring, it was possible to use countermeasures to lower the R-value to around 0.6, Lehr explains. According to their data, a thousand infected people infected 600 more. In this way, the number of infections could be reduced by about half each week.
“It was similar in the spring in Spain and Italy. In the second wave, however, the R-value could only be reduced to around 0.8, ”says Lehr. In his opinion, people are increasingly tired of pandemics and are no longer prepared for restrictions as great as in spring. Also, Advent is traditionally an active time with many contacts.
The difference between an R-value of 0.6 and 0.8 may seem small at first, but it has a big effect. The number of new infections is 0.8 a third higher than the lowest number, and it would take a correspondingly longer time to reduce it.
“With an R-value of 0.8 and relaxation at Christmas, we would probably end in February until there was some relaxation again,” says Lehr. Your team calculates the value a little differently than RKI.
Two high-profile events in a short time
He is especially concerned that the festival is also predestined to increase the current high death rate. It is mainly due to the fact that many older people get infected.
“It is human to want to see loved ones at Christmas. But there is a risk that hygiene rules will lose focus, ”says Lehr. Celebrations with more than two households in the immediate family could become a particularly dangerous super-spread event. “We see that every year with the flu, but it doesn’t circulate as widely.”
He also dislikes that the shutdown doesn’t start until Wednesday. “The number of infections is already very high. Allowing it to run for two days when you can assume that people are bustling in the city center means several days of additional lockdown at the rear, ”he says.
A concept is still missing
Experts are also calling for a long-term strategy to finally be developed. “In Germany, in Europe, we need a clear vision, a clear goal,” Priesemann said. It’s about preventing us from having to “suffer forever for a blocking light” and ensuring that we regain more freedom.
The researcher said on Twitter that recent weeks had shown that it was possible to keep the number of infections relatively constant. With an incidence of 50 in seven days, this will be much easier than in the partial closure of the last weeks.
Model calculations had previously corroborated that the strategy would lead to fewer restrictions, fewer deaths, and less economic damage than a high number of infections with a correspondingly high burden on hospitals (read more here).
Lehr also believes that the approach of keeping the number of infections low and directly containing local outbreaks through short and strict measures is an appropriate long-term strategy. It is also easier to maintain than long, permanent restraints.
