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Hopes for a Brexit deal are fading, the economy awaits customs chaos, and the British Navy is already preparing to protect its waters. With fear, anger and great skepticism, politicians and retailers look at the final days before a possible hard Brexit on January 1.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had “little expectation” that a deal would be concluded on time, she said at the EU summit in Brussels on Friday. He does not want to risk giving percentages on the probability that he believes a negotiation will be successful, von der Leyen said, based on consistent information from EU circles. But you don’t want to create expectations: »The probability of a ‘no deal’ is greater than that of a deal«.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was equally pessimistic. He described Britain’s exit from the EU without a trade deal as “very, very likely.” Prices collapsed on the European stock exchanges. Johnson said on Friday: “It is very, very likely that we will have to choose a solution that I think would be great for the UK, and that we could do exactly what we want from 1 January.” But he will not break the talks, he wants to continue negotiating.
Negotiations on a post-Brexit deal should continue through Sunday. The EU Commission has already proposed emergency measures in case a trade deal is no longer concluded. The BBC reported that Johnson met with his Brexit boss, Michael Gove, on Friday to get an overview of the consequences of a “no deal.”
Customs chaos casts its shadow on Dover
In light of the pessimistic comments from der Leyens and Johnsons, trade representatives now expect higher tariffs and other trade barriers from January 1 than ever before.
The first consequences of the possible “no deal” can already be seen in Dover: For days, trucks have been stuck for miles in front of one of the most important ports in the English Channel. In many places, containers clog the space. Many companies are trying to replenish their stocks before the end of the Brexit transition phase on December 31, but there are increasing reports that many ships are not accepting containers and calling at other ports with more lucrative orders. The toy manufacturers association BTHA has already warned that Christmas gifts for thousands of children in the UK might not arrive on time. Japanese automaker Honda halted production at its Swindon plant due to delivery problems.
Other consequences are foreseeable: the food trade, for example, must have significantly higher prices. On average, the BRC trade association warned on Friday that tariffs would be more than 20 percent higher on average for fresh foods like fruits and vegetables. BRC expert Andrew Opie said that a few weeks before the end of the transition phase on December 31, when Britain is still a member of the EU’s customs union and internal market, there is still no agreement in place, it is “alarming”.
Experts are also concerned that it is still unclear what companies will have to consider in the future to trade with the EU and what documents will be required. “This is crazy,” said Sally Jones, a retail expert at EY, a consultancy. Although the government has known about it for years, it has taken too long.
Royal Navy is preparing
The British Navy, on the other hand, is apparently already prepared for a hard Brexit. Four Royal Navy patrol boats would be ready from January 1 to protect Britain’s fishing waters in the event of a no-deal Brexit, The Guardian reported, citing naval sources. Vessels 80 meters in length would have the power to stop, inspect and confiscate all European Union fishing vessels entering British waters. Two ships must be used at sea, the other two must be on standby, he said.
A Defense Department official told The Guardian that the department “had done extensive planning and preparation to ensure that the defense was ready for a number of scenarios at the end of the transition period.”
In the Brexit negotiations until Sunday, the main points of contention also include the fishing rights of EU fishermen in British waters. Due to stalled negotiations, regulation of fishing rights between the EU, Great Britain and Norway has also been delayed. The Scandinavian country threatened to close its waters to British and EU ships if it failed.
