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For months it was something like the mantra of German politics: a second shutdown must be absolutely avoided. Otherwise, the strong rebound in summer would come to an abrupt halt and, worse still, another deep downturn in the economy, like the one in spring, is looming with unforeseeable consequences.
It is well known that things turned out differently. Germany has been in a shutdown again since November 2, albeit a less complete one. Schools, kindergartens and shops remain open, and this time the industry is hardly affected. However: pubs and restaurants close again, hotels and gyms, events and tourist trips are also prohibited. And it will stay that way for longer; The federal and state governments have recently given up hope that November with restrictions will suffice.
People in Germany seem to be aware of the negative economic consequences of this development, but to assess them relatively calmly. This is demonstrated by the SPIEGEL economic monitor, for which the opinion research institute Civey continuously surveys the population in a representative way. This long-term survey makes it possible to classify the current expectations of citizens regarding general and personal economic development, their fears and concerns, and their priorities.
By early October, the mood had almost returned to normal, similar to that before the pandemic: “Germans are leaving Corona concerns behind,” was the headline at the time. But only days later the worries increased again, thus Assessment of the current economic situation sample: the proportion of those who rated the situation as good fell from 46 percent to 37 percent in early November; the proportion of those who rated the situation as bad increased from 33 to 37 percent.
Compared to the first shutdown in spring, repeated restrictions caused only slight deterioration this time. And what’s more: since the beginning of November, citizens’ views on the economic situation have once again been more positive, in line with initial indicators that show that the second closure is a significantly less brake on the economy than the first .
On closer inspection, another conclusion is obvious: it seems that for the evaluation of the economic situation not just closing measures in himself, but already the Development of the number of infections. to play an important role. Because the values in the graph do not show the mood of a specific day, but rather that of a period of 30 days before.
Specifically, the low point of the November 6 assessment describes the mood in the period from October 7 to November 6. During this time, the daily number of infections increased rapidly and exponentially; November closure was not decided until October 28. Therefore, only the most recent values fully reflect the mood since this decision.
Regarding the labor market, it is noted that the second closure is the Worrying about losing your job something has risen again. In March and April, this concern had increased dramatically, with 20 percent of those surveyed with a job expressing fear of losing their job within a year, almost double than in normal times. After that, this proportion dropped again significantly and was for a long time at 13 percent, but now it has grown again to 15 percent. At the same time, the proportion of employees who consider their work to be safe has decreased somewhat and the proportion of those who cannot really evaluate it has increased.
The state of the pandemic is even more pronounced than in the current situation in the forecast of economic development in the next twelve months low. Here, the outlook for people in Germany clouded significantly, in parallel with the sharp increase in the number of infections, but some confidence returned during the shutdown, although it should be noted that Germans are traditionally more pessimistic about the near future. In absolute terms, more than twice as many people expect the situation to get worse instead of better.
However, the trend on this issue is clearly upward. That can also be done with the good news about vaccines To have to do. November 9 is marked on the chart, the day that the companies Biontech and Pfizer announced the surprisingly high effectiveness of their vaccine in studies.
When asked about the fact that the Germans are also relatively relaxed in the second close the most urgent need to act in economic and social policy. The “most important issue” is not specifically asked here. There is a big difference: a problem can definitely be classified as the most important without the need for action being seen, if there is a feeling that enough is already being done to solve it.
With the increase in the number of infections, the area of ”health and care” has returned to the top three, which in the meantime has been mentioned much less frequently. The most pressing issue, however, remains one that was always at the top before the pandemic: economic and social inequality with 20 percent of mentions.
For a long time, the Germans clearly seemed to view the crisis of the crown as an exceptional situation in the short to medium term, and not as a structural crisis that threatened the system. Because when it comes to the question of how personal financial situation in five years will show, they responded almost exactly the same as before, even after the onset of the pandemic.
In general, this is still the case, but now there is a slight change: the proportion of those who expect a negative economic future for themselves has not increased, it remains stable at a quarter. But the proportion of optimists has declined since then and has always been below 20 percent since October. The proportion of those who believe that five years from now will be slightly different than they are today has increased by the same amount.
The second closure impressed people in Germany in terms of their perception of the economic situation. However, concerns about the economic situation itself and the general economic situation have grown much less than in the first close of spring, and are now also decreasing.
