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GRAMUS Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman had just met in Saudi Arabia. Just days later, the killers attacked the Tehran suburbs. Mohsen Fakhrisadeh, a key figure in Iran’s nuclear weapons program, was killed by bullets from automatic rifles on Friday. It was not the first murder of a nuclear scientist that Iran and US intelligence agents attribute to Israel. But the most important. Fakhrisadeh was considered to be as important in his field as General Qassem Soleimani, leader of the Quds Special Forces, who had coordinated Tehran’s regional militia program and was killed by a US drone in January.
Jochen stahnke
Political correspondent for Israel, the Palestinian Territories and Jordan based in Tel Aviv.
In individual cases, the loss of both men represents a major personal setback for the Tehran regime, especially since they have pulled the strings in their respective areas of activity for decades. But just as the activities of militias in the Middle East that were subordinate to Iran did not fundamentally change after Soleimani’s death, few in Fakhrisadeh’s case believe that his assassination will thwart the nuclear program.
A “high-ranking government representative” of Israel told Israeli broadcaster Kan that it would now be very difficult for Iran to continue its nuclear weapons program. But if one really believes this in Jerusalem, the question arises as to why the coup was carried out at this time, since it can be assumed that Fakhrisadeh was observed for years and was not permanently hidden. In any case, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned his name in a speech in 2018 and distributed a photo of the Revolutionary Guard physicist.
Maximum pressure on Iran
The timing of the assassination is seen more on Washington’s political calendar. Until Joe Biden takes office on January 20, Israel will continue to exert maximum pressure on Iran. On the one hand, weaken Tehran’s economic and military capabilities as much as possible, as long as it has a free hand under Trump. Not without tactical success, as demonstrated by the blow to the centrifuge facility in Natans in the summer, which was also attributed to Israel and which rolled back Iran’s nuclear program. On the other hand, the main goal is to spoil the new negotiations announced by Biden on a revived nuclear deal.
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President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018, just days after Netanyahu revealed the Iranian so-called “nuclear archive” in Tel Aviv – thousands of documents that Mossad agents had brought to Israel from Tehran. With these documents, Israel wanted to show that Iran did not end its nuclear weapons program in 2003, but continued to investigate it, under the leadership of “Remember this name, Fakhrisadeh,” as Netanyahu said in that appearance. Israel views Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat to its own security and tries to delay it in every way possible. Iran’s growing arsenal of long-range missiles, which Fakhrisadeh is believed to have worked on, only adds to the urgency for Tel Aviv.
Iran should also know the political calendar. Even after Soleimani was assassinated in January, Tehran showed no backlash. And it can be assumed that Iran is following a strategy in the last days of the Trump administration that an Israeli representative described in the summer as a “keep your feet still” approach until Biden arrives. In any case, the alert level of the Israeli armed forces did not rise over the weekend, as reported by army radio.
At the same time, as former Israeli military intelligence chief Amos Jadlin suspected, the assassination attempt could lead Tehran to a violent response, which in turn provides an excuse for a US-led attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. This would at least delay the start of new nuclear negotiations and make diplomatic solutions more difficult. Trump is said to have considered a military strike two weeks ago.
Whether Trump’s deliberations or Fakhrisadeh’s assassination attempt, which has once again demonstrated Iran’s weaknesses in internal security, will now induce Tehran to surrender, or whether hardliners are moving in the direction of developing. quickly a nuclear weapon, it will probably just be time. show after January 20.
