Poland and Hungary against the EU: don’t be careless

reThe meeting of the two heads of government, Viktor Orbán and Mateusz Morawiecki, on Thursday in Budapest obviously served to demonstrate the determination of the two “budget rebels” Hungary and Poland. Because what has been proposed in Brussels so far is not a basis to approve the multiannual financial framework and the Crown aid budget, said the head of the Orbán Chancellery, Gergely Gulyás. This is likely to refer primarily to the proposal by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to decouple the budget rejection and the rule of law mechanism. Hungary and Poland could then challenge the procedures that they consider to be contrary to the Treaty before the Court of Justice of the European Communities. But it is precisely the coupling that is Orbán and Morawiecki’s trump card.

Therefore, they proposed a different decoupling in a coordinated joint statement: now quickly approve the budget and then, at some point in the European Council, discuss whether a link should be established between the rule of law and the financial interests of the European Union. That would mean in plain language: a change to Santa Neverlein. After all, the Council, that is, the assembly of heads of state and government, is the body that can only pass resolutions unanimously. And it was already the compromise formula of the last July Council that a “conditionality rule to protect the budget” should be introduced, which was then interpreted in such a fundamentally opposite way.

Orbán: Not a penny less will go to Hungary

The two heads of government wrap this approach together with formulas of willingness to compromise and argumentation with accusations: The budget was established ”. One remains willing to make a contribution to the solution, but that requires a substantial change in the currently proposed mechanism. Poland and Hungary would continue to maintain each other on the basis of loyal cooperation and solidarity. This means: not just between us. Together, of course, the two heads of government stand on an even firmer foundation, reminiscent more of the NATO assistance clause than of an EU compromise document: “Neither Poland nor Hungary will accept a proposal that another is unacceptable. “

Heads of government see themselves in a position of strength when it comes to budget and Corona aid. Orbán has repeatedly assured Hungarians in interviews that they will never find themselves in financial difficulties and that not a penny less will flow to Hungary. In addition, Hungary does not depend on the Corona fund, because thanks to its debt ratio there could be bonds in favorable terms anyway. In fact, Hungary sold bonds worth 2.5 billion euros at historically low rates of between 0.5 and 1.5 percent. Also in Warsaw, numerous politicians from the government field tried to downplay the importance of EU funds for Poland, or pointed out that the economies of the former EU countries benefited incomparably more from the enlargement of the EU than the economies of Poland and Hungary. “The Netherlands pays almost seven billion euros in the EU budget every year and earns 84 billion thanks to the internal market,” Maria Koc, senator of the ruling PiS party, tweeted, referring to EU statistics. Orbán’s right-hand man, Gulyás, took the same line when he said that Hungary currently receives € 4 billion net annually from the EU, while EU companies make € 6 billion in profit each year in Hungary. So it is a mutual benefit. “We don’t owe anyone anything for receiving EU funding. It is our money that we are definitely entitled to, ”said Gulyás.

Internal criticism of the Morawiecki course

In Warsaw, Polish policy towards Brussels is increasingly seen as part of a dispute in the field of government. Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro said Wednesday: “You must not be left behind in the negotiations, you must be tough and represent the interests of your country.” Many countries have already threatened a veto on the EU, most recently in the Netherlands in July, “but no one has accused the Prime Minister of the Netherlands that that would mean the collapse of the EU.”

Regarding the statement by the head of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, that critics of the rule of law mechanism could go to the Court of Justice of the European Union, Ziobro said that von der Leyen was acting ” in bad faith “and enforcing” regulations that she knows are wrong. ” . The word “coward” was seen as a criticism of Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who seems more conciliatory in the debate. This led to the question in the Polish media whether the Minister of Justice is now determining European policy.

Ziobro, known as Morawiecki’s opponent, leads a small party in the field of government whose breakdown would mean the loss of the parliamentary majority. However, the former banker Morawiecki has also been tough about it: “We are fighting so that Italy or Spain, Sweden or Bulgaria are not attacked in five or seven years because someone in Brussels does not like that they are in these and not in those . It is a kind of reform of your country, ”he said on Thursday before leaving for Budapest.

The liberal opposition accuses the government of leading the country towards a “Polexit”, an exit from the EU or its financing mechanisms. On the contrary, a right-wing magazine published the headline this week: “If you want to stay in the EU, prepare for Polexit” and invoked the maxim: “If you want peace, prepare for war.”