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Regional researchers believe that the population in Germany will hardly grow in the coming years, except in a few major cities. What are the booming cities and where is there the greatest population decline?
According to a new study, only some German metropolises can expect a rapidly growing number of residents in the coming years. According to an analysis by the Gewos Institute for Urban, Regional and Housing Research in Hamburg, Berlin will experience the strongest growth among the largest cities by 2035. For the capital, regional researchers expect the population to increase by 6.6 percent . Frankfurt is just behind the forecast at 6.2 percent.
According to the analysis, Cologne (plus 4.8 percent) and Hamburg (4.7 percent) can also expect significant population growth in the next 15 years. On the other hand, growth is slowing in Düsseldorf (plus 0.9 percent), Stuttgart (2.6 percent) and Munich (four percent). In the Bavarian state capital, “despite dynamic new construction activity, housing supply can no longer keep up with external demand,” according to the Gewos Institute. Therefore, the particular surrounding area will develop dynamically.
Little population growth until 2035
Overall, researchers expect the population in Germany to grow only slightly by 2035, by 0.7 percent to 83.7 million people. The crisis in the crown is currently holding back the immigration of skilled workers from abroad, the trend of recent years. Large cities in particular had grown, in some cases strongly, due to migrant workers with special skills. “Companies are wary of new hires and travel restrictions have slowed mobility,” said Gewos CEO Carolin Wandzik.
Regional researchers believe that external migration will only increase again from 2022, but then it will no longer reach the magnitude of the previous decade. Furthermore, it can be assumed that in view of the high real estate prices, more people will migrate from the metropolises to the surrounding areas in the future, especially young families. The trend could intensify with the Corona crisis if companies made working from home a long-term routine.
Good prospects for Rostock
The fact that the population in Germany is unlikely to grow in the coming years due to the low birth rate and possibly lower immigration, threatens to massively exacerbate the skilled worker shortage in many industries. According to a study by the economic research institute Prognos for the “Handelsblatt”, the number of workers in Germany will be reduced by seven percent by 2030. The reason is that the baby boomers are gradually retiring.
Prognos experts expect particularly high economic growth in several medium-sized German cities. Also due to the lively scene of young company founders, Rostock, Potsdam, Leipzig, Regensburg and Darmstadt are among the ten metropolitan areas with the best growth prospects in the next ten years, according to the institute.
Booming regions in the south
According to the Gewos researchers, the population will not only shrink by 2035 in East Germany. A population decline or stagnation is also to be expected in much of southern Lower Saxony, in northern Hesse, the Saarland, in the Ruhr area and in Schleswig-Holstein.
According to the forecast, almost all of southern Germany can hope to gain residents. With the exception of a few regions in the northeast, the population of Bavaria will grow by up to ten percent in the next 15 years. Booming regions are also large parts of Baden-Württemberg, the Rhine-Neckar and Rhine-Main areas, Hannover, and the area around the Volkswagen headquarters in Wolfsburg.
