[ad_1]
The EU cannot find a solution to the budget dispute over the veto between Hungary and Poland. Even a video summit at night did not change that. Now, among other things, the payment of the crown aid remains blocked.
By Holger Beckmann, ARD-Studio Brussels
If the European Union is lost, it will suspend the session. It was that way until now, and it has been that way again now. In their video summit, the 27 EU heads of state and government only spoke briefly about the massive conflict within their own ranks with Poland and Hungary and, in the meantime, apparently also with Slovenia, according to negotiating circles.
They would have shown each other their currently irreconcilable differences and then would have devoted themselves to less explosive issues. The situation in the individual health systems of the member states in particular. That should have been more or less without problems, because health policy in Europe is an exclusive matter for the member states themselves, no one can convince others.
The rule of law mechanism as a point of discussion
Very different from the common finances, which were agreed at an EU summit in Brussels in the summer and after a four-day marathon of negotiations: that is, the framework for the EU budget for the next seven years, the Corona rescue fund with a volume of a whopping 750 billion euros and linked to it – the so-called rule of law mechanism, which in the meantime has been so hated by Hungary and Poland.
In the future, it will force the EU member states to comply with the minimum standards of independence of justice and investigation and freedom of the press, if they want to get money from Brussels; and ensure that corruption is avoided in the distribution of these payments.
Slovenia takes the side of those who don’t say
The two Eastern European countries receive a considerable amount of money from Brussels and would also benefit greatly from the Corona fund. For years, however, they have been accused of trampling the rule of law in their own countries – for example, that Hungary is putting independent journalists in the cold or that the Polish government is appointing more and more obedient judges. They deny it in Warsaw and Budapest, but they still don’t want the rule of law mechanism.
But EU money does. So he rejects this mechanism, and with it the entire financial package, that others want to form a triad of budget frameworks, rescue funds and rules of the rule of law. Annoying for Brussels: Meanwhile, tiny Slovenia has sided with the two eastern Europeans, although it has not officially vetoed it so far. But one way or another, it complicates things even more.
The conflict is a real test
Many political scientists and economic researchers are confident that the conflict has what it takes to tear the European Union apart in the worst case scenario. The fact that the search for a way out has now been postponed is now described by some in Brussels as an admission of the inability of the 27 to really come together in the Crown crisis with its drastic consequences, especially for businesses and consumers. In fact, the consequences could be dire.
France and Germany jointly took the initiative from the Corona Fund in the summer. After it became clear how massive the economic depression caused by the pandemic would be, at the time, especially in Italy and Spain. It is now clear that other European countries are also severely affected: France or the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary are not just getting away with economic scratches. More importantly, despite the promising news about one or more vaccines, it is still unclear when this will all end.
Economic imbalance threatens the euro
One thing is clear: the fact that some EU countries are less economically affected by the pandemic than others is exacerbating economic imbalances in the European internal market and in the euro zone. In the spring, the head of the ESM’s euro rescue fund, Klaus Regling, made it clear that this could result in a new debt crisis and a breakdown of the euro.
Now it has been the EU Economic Commissioner, Paolo Gentiloini, who has made an urgent appeal to the member states: they should finally take responsibility for the people in their countries and throughout Europe and quickly take off the financial package to achieve this. To prevent the crisis of the century from getting worse.
Franco-German plan could fail
But apparently: not so. The ambitious Franco-German plan to lift the EU out of the pandemic with a massive injection of money financed by joint European debts, to hold it together and, above all, to push its economic modernization towards climate neutrality and digitization. Based on common binding legal values, this plan could fail.
Because there is a lack of unanimity in Europe for this. The president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, also reminds the EU states of their responsibility. But especially with Poland and Hungary, which don’t even have the euro as their currency, that doesn’t work.
The ECB does what member states cannot do
As long as the EU does not launch a financial package against the consequences of the crisis, the ECB must ensure that southern Europeans do not run out of money. Therefore, the central bank will likely continue to buy government bonds on a large scale to prevent the monetary union from breaking up. In the long run, this may harbor inflation risks, say some economic researchers; in the short term, there is no other way: with its monetary policy, the ECB is doing what member states cannot do in terms of financial policy.
How to solve all this is a puzzlement. It is true that there is speculation in Brussels about whether the Corona Fund could be launched without Hungary and Poland or if its voting rights could be withdrawn in the European Council of Member States, but all that would be tedious and complicated, and southern Europe is now worth billions from Brussels. educated, it is said from Rome and Madrid, and not at some point.
Germany still holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU. For Chancellor Angela Merkel, this situation is now a huge challenge. She is expected to seek and find compromises here. While Hungary and Poland rigorously reject the rule of law, the Netherlands and Scandinavians, for example, vehemently insist on it. In the summer, the chancellor and French president Emmanuel Macron managed to unite Europe. How it will end this time is completely open.
