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While the political and legal controversy continues over the possible manipulation of the US elections, votes are still being counted in the decisive states. What is the situation like in “transition states”? An overview.
270 is the magic number; at least this is the number of voters who want to win the presidential election in the United States. Joe Biden currently has 253 voters, Donald Trump 214. But in particularly contested states, votes are still counted.
Pennsylvania
The initial situation: Pennsylvania was considered key to Biden’s success even before the election. 20 voters are available here. In 2016, Donald Trump won it to the surprise of election researchers.
The cabin: In the morning, Trump led 49.5 percent to 49.2 percent. In votes, that means an advantage of around 18,000. Meanwhile, however, Trump had a significantly larger lead of up to 600,000 votes, which also vanished in the course of the mail-in ballot counting. And five percent of the ballots have yet to be counted.
The tendency: For now, Biden’s field can hope to win Pennsylvania, if the trend from the day before continues and the vast majority of the mail-in votes yet to be counted will go to the Democratic candidate. With 20 voters, Biden would then have the necessary majority.
North Carolina
The initial situation: Voters in the state had nearly always voted Republican in previous elections: In 2016, Trump’s lead over Hillary Clinton was 3.7 percent. 15 voters are available here.
The cabin: In North Carolina, Trump’s lead over Biden is slightly more pronounced than in Pennsylvania. Here it was 1.4 percent on the morning before Biden (50.0 percent / 48.6 percent). In votes, that means an increase of around 77,000. 95 percent of the ballots are counted here.
The tendency: Election watchers hope North Carolina will turn to Trump again.
Georgia
The initial situation: Georgia is not a classic “swing state”: Democrats last won here in 1992. In 2016, Trump’s lead over Clinton was comfortable at 50.4 percent versus 45.3 percent.
The cabin: This year the race is very close. In the morning, both candidates were nearly tied, while Biden edged out Trump and leads with 917 votes. In percentage, that’s a stagnation from 49.4 percent to 49.4 percent, but it’s still an advantage for Biden. 99 percent is counted here.
The tendency: With Biden catching up first and then outperforming Trump, election watchers predict a narrow victory for Democrats. Only 16 other voters would be enough for him to win the overall victory; then you would have exactly the required number of 270 voters.
Arizona
The initial situation: Arizona voters have almost always voted reliably for the Republican candidate in the past; only in 1996 was Bill Clinton able to win for the Democrats in the southern state. However, Arizona’s population structure is changing dramatically, with newcomers from California and an increase in the proportion of the population with family roots in Latin America. Arizona sends eleven voters to the “Electoral College.”
The cabin: Biden leads in Arizona 50.1 percent ahead of Trump with 48.5 percent, an advantage of about 47,000 votes. However, his lead has been steadily diminishing since election night. And ten percent of the votes have yet to be counted.
The tendency: Arizona was initially attributed to Biden on election night by Fox News and the AP, much to Trump’s chagrin. The outcome is now extremely uncertain: Trump’s success is also conceivable again.
Nevada
The initial situation: Nevada went to the Democrats and then the Republicans in the last election, a long-contested classic state. Since 2008, however, the Democrats have always won. Nevada has six voters.
The cabin: Biden’s lead in Nevada is steady but narrow. By morning he was ahead of Trump at 49.4 percent, who has so far had 48.5 percent, a lead of about 12,000 votes. Only 89 percent of the ballots have been counted, the majority votes by mail.
The tendency: Election watchers expect a narrow victory from Biden; a success only here
