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Around 8:30 a.m. in Germany, Donald Trump declared himself the winner of the election, although not all the votes have been counted, and announced that he would proceed against the counting of more votes.
How exactly is currently unclear. However, assuming no court is stopping the count with an emergency decision (which seems unlikely): how could it continue? What paths lead to victory for Trump and Biden? And when can you expect a result?
The initial situation:
That night, Donald Trump gave Florida a step toward a possible second election victory and also won important changing states Democrats had hoped for: Ohio and Texas.
Joe Biden has won as well as Arizona, a southern state that has long been red, that is, Republican, at least AP and Fox have given the state to the Democrats. Nevada is also open on Wednesday, but will probably go to the Democrats; a result is expected on Thursday.
What is still open?
First, the two states of North Carolina with 15 electorates and Georgia with 16 electorates. Georgia was once a dark red state, very Republican, but suddenly it seemed within the reach of Democrats. The race is extremely close. North Carolina is known as the swing state; here too it is narrow. Both states are relatively far behind on the tally and could present results later on Wednesday.
Second: Pennsylvania (20 voters). Trump is ahead here. And according to the statistics website Fivethirtyeight, about one-sixth of all votes still needs to be counted. Trump has an advantage of about 300,000 votes, but most of the missing votes were also cast by mail. Officials here have indicated that reliable figures may not be available until Thursday or Friday.
How can Biden win?
With major victories in Michigan and Wisconsin proclaimed by US broadcasters, Joe Biden is close to his goal: He only needs one state to win the election, and it seems possible that the necessary count will be available Wednesday night (local time).
In Nevada, after evaluating more than 85 percent of the vote, Biden had already led as expected. The absentee absentee ballot should also go in his direction, but it was unclear if the new numbers would be enough for the media to declare a winner that night. In Nevada, votes received through November 10, but no more than Tuesday’s Election Day postmark, are also valid.
In Georgia, Biden was about 10,000 votes behind. Officials also expected results from other counties by 9:00 p.m. local time (3:00 a.m. German time), including Fulton County with the Democratic metropolis of Atlanta. Commentators thought it was possible the Democrat could change the state.
In Wisconsin, which was awarded to Biden, this was ahead of the current full count with about 20,000 votes, or about 0.7 percentage points. Republicans announced that they would request a recount; in previous years only a few hundred votes had been displaced.
Counting takes longer due to the high percentage of votes by mail. Certifying these votes is usually a lengthy process in the US, sometimes the signatures have to be compared individually with those from the electoral roll. In the three states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the Republican Party had halted efforts to open the election envelopes before Tuesday’s election.
Pennsylvania, where it was and is much scarcer, doesn’t need Biden. This is also relevant in light of Trump’s election challenge strategy. Because Republicans in Pennsylvania had already complained about the scrutiny of mail-in ballots that arrive after Election Day. The Supreme Court has yet to make a final decision.
How can Trump win?
If Nevada and Arizona go to Biden, Trump needs a combination of four of the remaining states to win. It was the strongest Wednesday in North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, although hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots have yet to be counted in the latter state.
The following graph shows the current state of the electorate. Map data is based on CNN calculations.
In the United States, citizens also elect 435 members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the 100 senators. The result determines how much power and opportunities the new president will have to implement his plans. Most of the 50 or so governors will also be redefined. You can see how voting works here in the following graphics:
If you are wondering how exactly the US electoral system works, you have come to the right place:
For general information, you will also find the Top 20 Questions about the American Elections, including possible scenarios:
The latest news on Election Night can be found on our Live Blog on the US Elections at this link.
