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Is there a new wave of Islamist terror in Europe? And what is the risk situation in Germany? The response from the security authorities is sobering.
By Florian Flade, WDR and Georg Mascolo, NDR / WDR
In the security authorities, there is often talk of a “rush” in describing the current risk situation and the threat posed by Islamist terrorism. What this means is that researchers are seeing a change: Terrorist organizations are calling for more and more attacks, people are harassed in mosques, and jihadists are raving about martyrdom in chat groups. It’s boiling, that’s how it could be described. These days, the “noise” has gotten significantly louder.
The fatal knife attack on a homosexual couple in Dresden, the beheading of the teacher Samuel Paty near Paris, the attack on a church in Nice and now an attack on a popular nightlife district in Vienna: a whole series of acts of violence Islamist has rocked Europe in recent weeks. And the atmosphere is heated, due to the new cartoons in France and the clear position of the French government to defend freedom of expression and artistic freedom.
Temporarily disappeared from the public eye
So is there a new wave of Islamist terrorism? Has jihadist terror returned? The response from the security authorities is quite sobering: he never left. It is true that the continent has not been rocked by attacks as severe as in Paris, Brussels, Nice or Berlin in years. Instead, however, there were numerous minor attacks with few casualties, such as those carried out recently in Dresden with a knife or, as in August, on the Berlin city highway with a car.
Some of these acts barely made headlines, as did the arrests of terror suspects, which still occur with alarming regularity. In public perception, the threat posed by the jihadists had peaked with the territorial end of the terrorist militia “Islamic State” (IS). That was as correct as it was misleading. Because the ideology of the Islamists lives on as always. His propaganda, instructions for building bombs, and alleged justifications for killing “infidels” can still be found en masse on the Internet.
Hundreds of very dangerous Islamists in Germany
Recently, however, another threat came into focus that was finally perceived late: right-wing terrorism. The biggest threat to public safety, as Home Secretary Horst Seehofer explained, is currently from right-wing terrorists. The attempted assassination of Kassel district president Walter Lübcke, the attacks on a synagogue in Halle and the shisha bars in Hanau are a terrible proof of this assessment. Internal analysis said right-wing terrorism was the fastest growing and most dynamic threat.
At the same time, however, authorities warned that terror from Islamists across Europe would remain a challenge at least as great. There are still hundreds of very dangerous Islamists in Germany, in addition to a growing number of right-wing extremists. Therefore, it is important to distribute staff resources in the most intelligent and intelligent way possible to keep an eye on potential attackers. “Too much bread, too little butter,” the authorities describe it.
Hardly any clear stop pattern to be recognized
The Islamist threat has also changed: it has become more diverse and at the same time more diffuse. Clear patterns are difficult to recognize and make investigation difficult. In the past, many perpetrators were in direct contact with instructors from the Islamic State terrorist militia in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya, which at least made their discovery possible. Often times, the intercepted communications resulted in exposure and eventual arrest.
Meanwhile, this has become rarer, would-be assassins are more autonomous, IS ideology encourages them to simply attack. The fact that they sometimes do this with the simplest means, such as kitchen knives, also makes it difficult to figure out those plans in time.
In many cases, the authorities know the perpetrators; some of them, like the perpetrator in Vienna, had previously been in prison. Therefore, important questions arise: Why did the de-radicalization measures apparently have no effect? Why could extremists kill despite being on the screen of the authorities?
The “noise” has been louder since the new Mohammed cartoons
In Germany, the security authorities are currently perceiving a change of situation, the “noise” is clearly louder. The trigger for this is apparently the Muhammad cartoons in the French satirical magazine “Charlie Hebdo”. Islamists are not only calling for violence in France, but also on the local scene.
“Reactions to events in France … are available across the spectrum of the Islamist spectrum,” says the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. There are general threats that include calls for violence. The murderer of French teacher Samuel Paty is glorified as a martyr and his murder is described as a “legal” punishment.
In Baden-Württemberg, a young Islamist is said to have announced last week that he would carry out an attack in France. The Office for the Protection of the Constitution heard this, the police entered and searched his apartment. No weapons or explosives were found, but drugs. The 20-year-old was initially in custody.
