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reThe mark is at 270 – this is the number of electoral votes that Donald Trump or Joe Biden need to win the US presidential election on Tuesday. In the electoral system of the United States, Americans do not elect their head of state directly, but through voters in the so-called Electoral College.
The number of voters depends on the population of the respective US states: California with its 55 voters is the democratic heartland, Texas with 38 voters will likely revert to the Republicans. Florida is the decisive state where there is a greater chance of winning for both candidates, with 29 voters.
The outlook for Democratic challenger Biden looks better at the moment, but the way is still open for incumbent Republican Trump. An overview of the most likely chances of victory:
Joe Biden: Pennsylvania or Arizona or North Carolina
The easiest way for him to pave his way to the White House would be to win the three northeastern states that Trump stole from Democrats four years ago: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Until 2016, these had been in democratic hands for decades. If Biden still has the states behind him, which Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton also had in her portfolio four years ago, he gets 279 votes from the electorate.
The three industrialized states of the Northeast were the focus of Biden’s election campaign. There it invested almost $ 150 million (about 128 million euros) in advertising, that is, a third of its advertising spending nationwide since June, according to a survey by the AP news agency.
The easiest path to victory for Joe Biden would be to win back the formerly Democratic states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Source: WORLD infographic
The biggest fight for Biden is likely to be in Pennsylvania. He’s slightly ahead in most polls, but some look at Trump. He expects a tailwind from Biden’s recent calls for a gradual shift away from fossil fuels in the state with the natural gas industry. If Biden doesn’t win Pennsylvania, he will have to gather eleven electoral votes elsewhere. He could do that in Arizona (11) or North Carolina (15), both behind Trump four years ago, but now they are within reach of Biden.
If Joe Biden doesn’t win Pennsylvania, he could still secure the White House by winning Arizona or North Carolina.
Source: WORLD infographic
Arizona was last won by Democrats in 1996, but in 2016 Trump’s lead was only 3.5 percent, down from the previous 20 years. North Carolina elected a Democrat for the first time in 32 years in 2008, namely Barack Obama. He narrowly lost there again in 2012, as did Clinton in 2016, but the influx of college graduates in the growing suburbs increases Biden’s chances.
For Biden, however, there could also be successes in the north and south and allow him to make an even more comfortable jump over the 270 mark. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona or North Carolina together would have at least 290 electoral votes. Ohio, Iowa and Georgia could be added, where Trump was eight and nearly ten and five percentage points ahead, respectively. That would mean Biden with more than 300 votes.
Victories in Iowa, Ohio or Georgia could extend the Democrats’ lead or act as a buffer on election night.
Source: WORLD infographic
Polls predict a close result in at least Iowa and Ohio. Florida is usually narrow. There too it will be exciting again.
Finally, Texas also has a large piece of the pie to offer. In polls, Lone Star status tends toward the headline, but this time Democrats have a realistic shot for the first time in decades, in part because Trump is fighting in the growing suburbs.
Donald Trump: Florida, Florida, Florida!
Florida seems essential. Without the state in conflict, Trump can hardly get the 270 votes he needs. Polls predict a close race, some with a slight advantage for Biden. Trump is well aware of this: He visited Florida for the third time in October to promote himself on Thursday. On Election Day Tuesday, he wants to join his wife Melania as she votes in Florida.
But even if Trump has Florida in line and can secure the South and Southwest states that he won four years ago, it is not enough. Thus, the president has put a lot of weight on Pennsylvania in the election campaign, including several last-minute appearances in recent days.
Without victories in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, it will be difficult for Donald Trump. I could give Wisconsin and Michigan to Joe Biden
Source: WORLD infographic
Even with Florida and Pennsylvania in his pocket, Trump is unlikely to lose any of the states he won against Clinton in 2016. He could win in Ohio, one of his strongest states for a long time, but he should also prevail in states like Iowa, where he was victorious four years ago. The latest polls show that in all these contested states, Trump has to make up a sizable deficit, as in 2016. The incumbent seems to need a perfect election night to be successful. Four years ago, he managed to do it in a surprising and impressive way.
A more complicated path back to the White House would be if he could unzip the Democrats in Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire. However, it would contradict political logic if an incumbent loses states that he won four years ago and now secures states that were then lost to himself.
In the end, everything is open. “Biden is more likely than Trump to win more votes,” sums up pollster Glen Bolger. “But that doesn’t mean that Trump can’t win.”
