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WITHTwo days before the election, the United States eagerly awaits the latest polls, especially one: a final test of the mood in Iowa, a “changing state” in the Midwest. A month ago, Donald Trump and Joe Biden were still on the same page, now the headline clearly leads, with seven percentage points.
According to the poll by the Des Moines Register newspaper, 48 percent of voters would vote for Trump, 41 percent for Biden and three percent for an independent candidate. The rest are undecided or do not want to comment. Although many institutes were wrong with their forecasts four years ago, the Iowa poll is causing a stir among Democrats. “Illuminating” and a necessity for political junkies, writes the “New York Times” on the results of renowned pollster Ann Selzer.
Selzer and his institute have a reputation for capturing the mood in Iowa more accurately than others. And they have a proven track record: In 2016, Selzer’s last poll before the election expected a Trump victory with a seven percentage point lead. Trump won Iowa by a 9.4 point margin. Many other polling stations did not see the change in sentiment coming among white voters in the Midwest, but Selzer did.
Selzer’s surveys in 2016 and 2014 were very accurate
In the 2014 Senate election, he also predicted a seven percentage point lead for Republican Joni Ernst over Democrat Bruce Bradley. Because other institutes predicted a head-to-head race, Bardely’s team rejected the outlier survey. Like Trump, Ernst won two years later by nine points. The Republican will run again on Tuesday, and a total of 35 of the 100 Senate seats will also be available for election on November 3. According to the Selzer poll, Ernst leads with 46 to 42 percent compared to Democrat Theresa Greenfield.
Selzer told the Des Moines Register that men in Iowa tended to vote more for Trump and women for Biden, but that the gender gap had narrowed. Independent voters – that is, those who are not classic party supporters – would likely decide, as in 2016, to support Trump, according to Selzer. “The president has the demographics that he won in Iowa four years ago.” In September, it looked like the Independents would go to Joe Biden. Now they are an asset to Trump.
In reality, Democrats hope to win Iowa as they did in 2008 and 2012, even if the six voters to be won may seem little at first glance. Joe Biden appeared in Des Moines on Friday night, a clear indication that Democrats believe the race is a tie. Trump last visited Iowa in early October and is planning a performance in Dubuque on Sunday.
Iowa plays a big role in Trump’s road to victory
On average of all the polls, Joe Biden remains the clear favorite, but it cannot be ruled out that Trump remains in the White House. Iowa plays an important role in Trump’s path to victory. The Washington Post follows this path in an analysis.
The easiest way takes Trump through Swing State Florida with its 29 voters. The current New York Times poll and the Siena Polling Institute see Biden 47 to 44 percent ahead. Based on the poll’s probability of error of 3.2 percentage points, a swing in favor of Trump cannot be ruled out.
Four years ago, Trump won Florida by 1.2 percent, or 112,911 votes. On election night 2000, George W. Bush’s lead over Al Gore in Florida was just 537 votes. This was followed by weeks of legal tug of war and an election decision before the constitutional court.
If Trump wins Florida again, that would be a sign that other southern states, some of which already tend to Trump, as in 2016, will also go to age 74, specifically Texas (38 voters), but also South Carolina. (9). Arizona (11), North Carolina (15) and Georgia (16): In the latter, Trump is behind Biden in the polls, but in some cases at direct striking distance. According to the Washington Post, Trump would have 235 voters, 270 are needed.
If Trump wins in Florida and other southern states as in 2016, the elections will be decided in the Midwest: in Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Source: WORLD infographic
The battlefield states, in which the elections would be decided, would be in the north. And that’s where Iowa comes in. If Republicans win there and in equally agricultural Ohio with 18 voters, Trump’s lead increases to 259 voters. His victory would be certain if Pennsylvania (20 voters) or Michigan (20 voters) won; both are “undecided states”. Minnesota (10 voters) would at least be enough for a stalemate in the electoral body.
In Minnesota and Michigan, Biden is in the lead, so clearly his lead wouldn’t be compromised even if the polls were as inaccurate as four years ago. Pennsylvania has the smallest Democratic lead at six percentage points among the three states. If pollsters are wrong again like in 2016, when Trump surprisingly won there, Biden’s leadership drops to one percentage point, as the “New York Times” calculated. Pennsylvania is neither won nor lost for either candidate. Consequently, Trump held four election campaign events in Pennsylvania on Saturday and Biden plans to visit the state on Monday.
Even if Biden leads the national polls, the mind game shows: If the Democrats lose in Florida, there can’t be too many surprises in the Midwest. The Iowa poll is from the first two days before the election.
