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Tuesday, October 27, 2020
By Klaus Wedekind
There are still enough free intensive care beds in Germany, but the growing number of seriously ill Covid 19 patients threatens to blow up available capacities. According to calculations by the National Association of Mandatory Health Insurance Physicians, it could even be up to now in four weeks.
In recent weeks there has been much debate about whether the number of new infections is decisive as a benchmark for assessing the corona pandemic in Germany. Among other things, virologist Hendrik Streeck called for greater attention to be paid to advances in hospitals, as the ultimate goal is to avoid overloading the health system. This is now inevitably happening because, with a slight delay, the rapid rise in new infections is followed by a growing number of hospitalized patients and intensive in Covid 19 patients.
Curves rise steeper and steeper
According to the intensive care registry of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive and Emergency Medicine (DIVI), there are currently 377 new patients with Covid-19 in German intensive care units. This increased their total number from 108 to 1,470 people and 269 treatments were completed. Almost half (688) of corona patients require artificial ventilation, 66 more than yesterday. The curves are getting steeper, a week ago there were 879 people infected with Covid-19 in German intensive care units.
DIVI only counts beds that are ready for use in its statistics. An intensive care unit is considered operational “if it has a designated room, functional equipment and supplies for each bed place, beds and staff with medical and nursing specialists, and can be used according to the level of care “.
Currently in Germany there are a total of 21,717 intensive care beds, 7,682 are available and the emergency reserve amounts to 12,775 beds. On the map of Germany based on these data, it can be seen that different regions are affected differently and that intensive capacities are sometimes already being used or imminent, while in other areas the emergency may never occur.
Berlin, for example, only has a free capacity of 14 percent with a total of 1,241 intensive care beds available, in the Northwest Mecklenburg district seven of the 17 beds are occupied, in the Freising district and at twelve. Sometimes relocations to neighboring regions are possible, sometimes not.
Development is so fast that the Central Institute of Legal Medical Insurance (Zi) has calculated that there are only 28 days left until the national capacity limit is reached. This means that effective countermeasures must be taken within seven days, as these only take effect after a three-week delay.
The Chancellor sees it in a similar way. According to “Bild”, he calculated today that the number of occupied intensive care beds is currently doubling every ten days. “Duplicate it four times and the system is done.” After Merkel was ridiculed when she expected 19,200 new infections by Christmas a month ago with steady development, no one will scoff this time.
DIVI President Uwe Janssens is also concerned about the near future. Now there is “enough capacity for free intensive care beds and ventilators,” he told the Funke media group. But that alone does not help “if we do not have staff to care for patients.” Herein lies “the much bigger problem.” Roughly estimated, there was a shortage of 3,500 to 4,000 intensive care specialists nationwide, Janssens said.
“Between six and nine percent of those infected today will have to be treated in a hospital in two weeks,” said the president of the Marburger Bund doctors union, Susanne Johna of the Funke media group. “Actually, a nurse is required for every seriously ill Covid patient in the intensive care unit.”
Gerald Gaß, president of the German Hospital Society (DKG), agrees. “We will have to adjust to waiting times for standard care, as well as the relocation of patients from highly stressed locations to more distant hospitals,” he told the media group.
