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SPIEGEL: Mr. Borick, what are the main conclusions that you have drawn from the polls about the American elections in the last weeks and months?
Christopher BorickMost notable is the consistency and breadth of Joe Biden’s leadership. He’s been at the forefront for some time, and that leadership has grown slightly, both nationally and in key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Florida. Another important feature of this election cycle is that most polls show that there are significantly fewer undecided voters than in 2016.
SPIEGEL: What does this mean for Donald Trump’s prospects?
Borick: First, it explains the stability of the values. These suggest that it will be an uphill battle for the president to repeat his 2016 success, when he won elections with very narrow victories in some swing states.
SPIEGEL: What role did undecided voters play in the last presidential election four years ago?
Borick: There are a number of reasons the 2016 polls were wrong, although they basically weren’t as far off as some have suggested. One important factor: a significant proportion of the electorate was undecided and did not like any of the candidates. Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have historically had high levels of pushback. In the end, these voters had to make a decision and a disproportionately large number of them voted for Donald Trump.
