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Eleven days to go and the United States will elect a new president. Joe Biden’s lead in the polls looks comfortable, but Donald Trump is catching up easily. The race in many transition states is drawing near.
US President Donald Trump and his rival, former Vice President Joe Biden, compete in the US elections on November 3 about the presidency. The race is closed; much will depend on which candidate can win in the major transition states.
Challenger Joe Biden is ahead in much of the disputed US state, but Donald Trump can easily catch up in the latest polls. The race in many undecided states is closed, in six of the 13 states the advantage of one of the two politicians is three percent or less. Trump is only ahead in Texas and Ohio. The current president of the United States would have to win many of the closed races, Biden currently has a clear advantage. Biden had recently outperformed Republicans in Iowa and Georgia in the forecasts.
The election campaign takes place at a time of crisis, the corona pandemic has hit the United States hard and since the spring there have been massive protests against racism and police violence in the country after the death of African American George Floyd.
By the summer, Trump’s crisis management meant he was far behind Democrat Biden in national polls and was only able to catch up slowly in the fall. Nationally, Biden’s average leadership in polls has ended 7 percent. (As of October 24, 7 pm).
Who is really ahead?
The problem: Nationwide polls in the United States provide little information on who will ultimately be able to enter the White House. In the 2016 US elections, Democrat Hillary Clinton won 48.2 percent of the vote, ahead of Republican Trump with 46.1 percent. The end is known, Trump became president of the United States anyway.
This is mainly due to the American electoral system. The president is not elected directly by the people, but by 538 electors and voters. Each state has a certain number of them depending on the size of the population. The candidate with the most votes in the state basically registers the entire state electorate for himself. Exception: In Maine and Nebraska, electorate votes are divided by majorities in electoral districts. The overall state winner receives two more votes.
That is why it is comparatively difficult to make predictions about the American elections. But with a look at opinion polls in various US states, you can estimate how close the race really is.
Current forecasts: By average calculations from “270toWin,” a nonpartisan political side, Biden is clearly in the lead after voters. The race has yet to be decided.
How is the situation in the transition states?
Biden’s lead over Trump is not as good as it might seem. US presidential elections are often decided in some undecided states; These are US states where there has often been a changing Democratic or Republican majority in the past. In some of them the race is close and there are many voters.
US presidential elections were often decided in Ohio, Michigan, and Florida. In these US states, the race is close, including Biden’s race against Trump. More recently, Biden lost his poll lead almost entirely in Florida and North Carolina, with a total of 44 voting men and women in just the two US states.
Current forecast: What’s particularly surprising about the 2020 U.S. election is that polls in Texas predict a relatively tight outcome. If Trump loses in the Republicans’ home country (38 electoral men and women), he will likely lose the election as well. For Biden, a victory in Florida (29 voters) would be a big step toward the presidency. Here Trump was able to prevail against Clinton in 2016 (1.6 percent).
Democrats or Republicans, who will get the majority in the Senate and Congress?
In November, not only will the president of the United States be elected, but also the House of Representatives and the Senate.
In the House of Representatives, based on current “270toWin” calculations, it appears that Democrats could defend or even expand their majority. The 435 members of the House of Representatives each represent an electoral district and are directly elected every two years. The survey shown reflects trends in constituencies. Even if the Democrats lost all races that are currently considered “close,” they should still retain a majority.
The battle for a majority in the Senate seems closer, and it is still not entirely clear which party will be able to achieve a majority here after the November elections. About a third of the Senate is reelected every two years. This third is highlighted in the graphic.
The Senate is made up of 100 senators. Each state has two seats. In states that have to grant a mandate, it is decided by majority vote. The survey values shown reflect trends across the states.
Current forecast: Polls currently see Democrats at an advantage. If this is confirmed, the party could win majorities in Congress and the Senate in addition to the presidency of the United States. That would give them plenty of room to maneuver over the next two years and would be a huge defeat for Trump and the Republicans.
