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Donald Trump is behind in the race for the White House. Can you refute polls and forecasts like four years ago? In fact, 2020 is very different from 2016.
If you believe the polls, things are pretty clear: Donald Trump is far behind. Joe Biden leads the polls nationwide, as well as most of the voting states. There are many indications that Americans will vote against Trump in early November.
But can you even believe the polls? The memory of 2016 is fresh, even painfully fresh, for those US citizens who reject Trump. Back then, Hillary Clinton was clearly ahead in the polls and forecasts for the election outcome. Some of Biden’s values are very similar to what Clinton had four years ago.
Then, as now, statistical experts estimate that the probability of Trump winning the election is only about 10 percent. But the end is known: Four years ago there was a surprise victory for Trump.
History repeats itself?
Does history repeat itself now? The nervousness about the extent to which the numbers can be trusted is evident in the US election campaign. Many voters view Biden’s leadership in polls or in collecting large campaign donations with great caution.
Trump’s best hope is for this to happen. He himself sometimes campaigns as if it was still 2016: there is hardly a day that he does not criticize his then competitor Hillary Clinton.
In fact, 2020 is very different from 2016, and the comparison with the situation four years ago is very weak. These are the most significant differences:
1.) Surveys are more reliable
The polls are still snapshots of the political mood. But according to polls, more reliable than four years ago. At the time, many institutes underestimated one group of voters in their polls in contested individual states: the white voter without a college degree. They voted en masse for Trump. Your participation in the samples is now extrapolated to better reflect the actual voting behavior under Trump. Additionally, more surveys are being conducted in key states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
And something else stands out: Biden’s leadership in the political environment appears grounded, while Clinton’s leadership fluctuated significantly during the summer and fall of four years ago. The mood is more stable than four years ago and is better represented.
2.) Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton
What may seem trite at first pays off. The Trump-Clinton duel was a duel between two unpopular candidates. The Clintons had been hated by Republicans since the early 1990s, and Trump managed to portray Hillary as corrupt and drag her values into the basement. That didn’t work out for Biden. The 77-year-old is significantly more popular than Clinton, considered less controversial and more trustworthy. Even if Trump is doing his best to portray him as corrupt, most recently with a story plagued with numerous doubts about his son Hunter, this has so far hardly been successful: Biden’s values remain stable.
The Democrat is also ahead of such important groups of voters as non-partisans and retirees, who still voted for Trump in 2016.
3.) Trump 2020 is not Trump 2016
Four years ago, Trump was seen as the unspent alternative, as someone who could be given a chance. In fact, most voters who only made their voting decisions on short notice did. According to polls, 13 percent made their decision shortly before the elections. However, after nearly four years in the White House, opinions have long been consolidated. There are many indications that the election will be primarily a referendum on the president and his administration.
The group of undecided voters is correspondingly small, between two and eight percent, according to the survey. Also have Tens of millions of Americans under the early voting your vote already cast. The space for recovery maneuvers is much narrower.
Those are the three most important differences compared to 2016. However, the outcome of the November elections is anything but predictable. If the polls are as good as generally claimed, it will only become apparent on election night. The crown pandemic has an as yet undetermined effect on the outcome of the elections. Unlike the Republicans, the Democrats, for example, have dispensed with the classic door-to-door election campaign.
Are you interested in the American elections? Washington correspondent Fabian Reinbold writes a newsletter about the election campaign, his work in the White House, and his impressions of the United States under Donald Trump. Here you can subscribe to the “Post from Washington” for free, which then lands directly in your mailbox once a week.
More Americans than ever have cast their votes in advance at polling stations or by mail. Democrats have asked their supporters to vote by mail. There are big questions about how well mobilization really works, how high turnout will be, and how many votes will actually be counted.
There are increasing reports that numerous mail-in ballots in disputed states have failed to meet formal guidelines. In addition, legal proceedings are already intensifying on how long the vote-by-mail count can be extended in the respective states. Therefore, the 2020 race is characterized by its own unpredictable factors.
