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Trade war, Huawei, Hong Kong: Donald Trump boasts of taking on China, unlike Joe Biden. But reelection of Trump would have several advantages for Beijing.
Donald Trump’s campaign strategy includes portraying himself as a difficult negotiator. Especially in relation to China, the Republican poses as a lone hero resolutely taking on Beijing: keyword trade war and crown coverup. For Trump, this strategy also includes portraying his challenger Joe Biden as Beijing’s lap dog.
“China ate your lunch, Joe,” Trump said in the first televised debate between the two presidential candidates on the Democrat, that is: China is pulling you off the table on trade issues.
Trump even often calls his rival “Beijing Biden” – “Beijing-Biden” to imply that the Communist rulers in Beijing have the Democrats in their hands. The accusation is unsubstantial, there is no evidence. But that doesn’t stop Trump supporters from spreading the rumors. The website beijingbiden.com, paid for by a Trump-affiliated lobbyist, claims that Biden’s family has corrupt relationships with the Chinese elite and that there are obscure motives behind their stance on China.
One thing is clear: Beijing loves Democrat Biden and fears Republican Trump will be Trump’s staging. It has little to do with reality. Many experts assume the opposite. They believe that China is secretly betting on a Trump victory.
One of these experts is Noah Barkin. The American works for the German Marshall Fund in Berlin. Observe and analyze Sino-European relations and their importance for the transatlantic relationship. Barkin contacted t-online early in the morning via video telephony in a Berlin coworking space.
Trump is quite unpredictable for Beijing, says the expert. In 2017, Republican Xi Jinping welcomed him to his luxurious Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. “We had great chemistry,” the US President enthused after the meeting. It wasn’t long before early observers interpreted the relationship as a “bromance,” an intimate friendship between men.
Trump and the “China virus”
But just a year later, Trump started the trade war. Washington and Beijing negotiated a tentative agreement in January. But then the corona virus arrived and the relationship between the United States and China increased. Since then, Trump has seized every opportunity to blame Beijing for the pandemic. “I beat this crazy and terrible virus from China,” he said a week after his corona-related hospitalization. Recently, in a speech to the United Nations, he demanded that China be held accountable for the epidemic.
And that’s not all: Washington has issued visa restrictions against Huawei employees and sanctions against Hong Kong politicians. According to many observers, relations are at their worst since the establishment of diplomatic ties in 1979. In this context, the Chinese government cannot be enthusiastic about an electoral victory for Trump, says Barkin.
But ironically, in a Trump victory, there is also a great opportunity for the People’s Republic. Because the president of the United States has not only created alienation in the Sino-American relationship. He’s also gambling on America’s greatest strength, according to Barkin: the trust of his allies.
“I think Trump can win”: In “Ask Me”, US correspondent Fabian Reinbold answers questions from t-online users about the US elections and Donald Trump. (Source: t-online / Imago)
Former allies are vilified
The president of the United States has repeatedly expressed his dislike for NATO. According to his former security adviser, John Bolton, he even wanted to threaten the alliance with leaving. The EU also regularly covers Trump with abuses. He told the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year that when it comes to trade, Europe is “worse than China.”
Relations with Germany, a traditional ally, are also strained. The points of contention are the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, German military spending and the US trade deficit. This aversion to the allies, Barkin said, plays into the hands of Beijing. Because a weak transatlantic alliance leaves more room for Chinese power to develop.
In contrast, says the expert, Joe Biden represents a transatlantic comeback. The Democrat has not only announced that he wants to pursue a more consistent policy on China. He also indicated that he will seek cooperation with European partners for this purpose. “Biden represents a greater risk to the People’s Republic,” says Barkin. “So a second Trump term would be a great victory for Beijing.”
Biden will do the EU’s job
The Biden thing is complicated for Europe. Because, on the one hand, the EU wants the Democrats, says Barkin. On the other hand, with Biden, she also has more work to do. The Democrat will not only demand clearer language from European politicians in relation to Beijing. It will also try to reform the World Trade Organization together with Europe. Last but not least, Biden’s trend to move military assets to Asia will continue. For Europe, this means: more responsibility for its own security.
An electoral victory for Trump, on the other hand, would be a disaster for the EU. A Republican win will leave Brussels feeling crushed between two superpowers, says Barkin. So, Europe will strive for strategic independence, but this will not be available overnight. This is precisely where the benefit for Beijing lies. Because the greater the alienation between Europe and the United States, according to Barkin, the less willing Europe is to oppose Beijing in disputes.
