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It has been clear since the start of the corona pandemic that travel means increased risk. But a study now shows for the first time just how big the influence of travel is on the spread of the virus and which travel restrictions are particularly effective.
The debate over the Crown’s restrictions on tourists is accelerating again in Germany. Are entry and accommodation bans for people in areas with very high numbers of infections justified or exaggerated? While this is sometimes bitterly disputed, a study confirms that travel restrictions now have a very clear effect on the development of the Corona-Pandemie – and the Corona-related death rate.
The study closely examined the impact of international travel restrictions, such as entry bans and mandatory quarantines for travelers returning from 181 countries. COVID-19-Has mortality rates.
According to the study’s author, Ruud Koopmans, Professor of Sociology and Migration Research at the Humboldt University of Berlin, the result is clear. Countries that already imposed entry restrictions in February or early March saw significantly fewer deaths per crown in the middle of the year. In concrete terms, the comparison shows: In countries that had introduced travel restrictions in early March, the death rate due to or with Corona was around 62 percent lower than in those countries that did so since mid-March or they didn’t do it at all.
(What: WZB)
Fewer deaths from corona in countries with fewer trips
Therefore, anticipated travel restrictions have contributed significantly to the spread of the Coronavirus Slow down SARS-CoV2 and keep Covid-19 deaths low.
The study also shows that countries heavily affected by international travel and tourism, such as France, Italy, and the US, have had significantly more deaths as a result of Covid-19. On the other hand, mortality rates are significantly lower in those countries with less Tourist Traffic face. This generally includes island states as well.
The graph shows the number of countries that introduced travel restrictions of various kinds between January and June 2020. (Source: WZB)
The previous assumption of the WHO and the German authorities was a “fatal mistake”
“Travel restrictions should carry much more weight. This applies to containment of the impending waves of the current pandemic, but also similar pandemics in the future,” said Koopmans, who is also director of the Center for Social Sciences in Berlin. .
How much the World Health Organization (who) and the EU and responsible authorities in Germany assumed in mid-March that border closures could not stop the virus, Koopmans is extremely critical. “This assumption was a fatal mistake.” The analysis also shows that the earlier a country responded, the more effective the measures were. Restrictions on travel so it had to have happened at a time when the local spread of the virus was still manageable.
Current situation of the crown in Germany
According to the RKI, a further increase in population transmissions can now be observed in several federal states. There are outbreaks in Germany in various districts that are related to different situations, such as larger celebrations in family and friends, in companies and around religious events. The proportion of Covid-19 cases in the elderly population is increasing slightly.
Countries that introduced travel restrictions at an early stage and were able to significantly limit deaths include Australia, Israel and Czech Republic. He replied late, however, among other things Britain, France and Brazil. Germany also decided on travel restrictions late, but not as late as these countries.
“Previous Epidemiological Research […] He was often skeptical about the benefits of travel restrictions, “writes sociology professor Koopmans. This conclusion is partly understandable. However, Koopmans underestimates” the importance of buying time and the number of people in the initial phase of a pandemic Keep cases low enough that identification and isolation of contacts are viable strategies. “
These travel restrictions have the biggest effect
The study also provides indications of which travel restrictions are particularly effective: mandatory quarantines for travelers have a greater effect than entry bans, presumably because entry bans often contain exceptions for returning citizens and residents. permanent. Quarantine measures, on the other hand, generally apply to all immigrants, regardless of their nationality or state of residence.
Mask requirement to protect against corona infection: passengers sit on the plane with mouth and nose protection. (Source: Mohamed Abd El Ghany / File Photo / Reuters)
The study also found that specific travel restrictions are more effective than restrictions that apply to all foreign countries.
It remains to be seen whether the opening of Europe’s internal borders in early summer also created a fatal dynamic. In view of the decline in the number of infections in the EU, Germany had the Travel warning for most European countries, supported by many experts.
He too Virologist Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit he said at the time on “Deutschlandfunk” that in view of the “manageable infection rate” in most European countries, he believes it is justified to open the borders again. However, the risk “can never be reduced to zero,” according to the director of the Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine.
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