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Sunday, October 18, 2020
A tough Brexit threatens in ten weeks if negotiations between the EU and Britain fail. But this is how everything looks right now. Even if and when the negotiations will take place is now being discussed. The door is not yet closed, “but it is ajar,” they say from London.
The British government has made massive threats of the failure of the Brexit trade pact negotiations. The chances of a deal have diminished. Brussels is unwilling to compromise, said State Minister Michael Gove, broadcaster Sky News. He had last estimated the chances of a deal after the Brexit transition phase at the end of the year at 66 percent. Now Gove said: “It is less.” Now it is up to the EU negotiator, Michel Barnier, to see if a deal is reached. “The ball is in their court,” said Gove, who is in charge of preparing for a breakdown in negotiations. The EU must change its attitude.
Barnier and British negotiator David Frost wanted to call each other in the next few days about how to proceed, Gove reported. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already stressed on several occasions that Britain is prepared for a no-deal Brexit. Many commentators see the harsh sounds of London as a game of muscles. Because Britain is facing very difficult times: the country must fear strong economic upheavals not only in the event of a no-Brexit deal, but also due to the corona pandemic.
The time pressure facing both parties is enormous: a treaty between Brussels and London has yet to be ratified. Johnson had set October 15 as the deadline for a deal, which Brussels ignored. The EU wants to negotiate until the end of October. Barnier originally wanted to be in London for talks that Monday and offered to continue negotiations intensively for the next few days. In the afternoon it was not entirely clear if this would happen. A spokesman for the EU Commission declined to comment on the state of planning. He simply referred to announcements made Friday that Barnier and Frost would like to discuss the “structure” of the additional negotiations on Monday. Frost, however, had announced after the EU summit that Barnier should not come to London for talks on Monday. Does that mean that the door has been closed for further negotiations? Gove said in the Sky News interview: “It’s ajar.”
Negotiations have stalled for months
Britain left the international community at the end of January, but remains a member of the EU internal market and the customs union until the end of the year. Only then comes the economic breakdown. If no agreement is reached, there is a risk of serious economic turmoil. The trade pact is supposed to prevent that. Negotiations have not progressed in some areas for months.
The main points of contention are the access of EU fishermen to British waters and the demand from the international community for a level playing field for the economy, ie equal environmental, social and subsidy standards. In return, Britain should be able to deliver goods to the EU internal market without customs duties or quantity restrictions. The third important point for Brussels is the arbitration rules in case either party breaks the deal.
The British industry association CBI appealed to both parties to come to an agreement after all. A no-deal Brexit and a second crown wave could not be achieved for most companies. On Friday, the US rating agency Moody’s had already reduced the UK’s solvency. The agency cited the decline in economic strength as the main reason. After graduation, the country is still in the area of secure systems.
