[ad_1]
After a year of transitional government and political chaos, Bolivia is electing a new head of state. The country is deeply divided politically and the election result could deepen the gap.
By Ivo Marusczyk, ARD-Studio Buenos Aires
Bolivia has not had a democratically legitimized government for almost a year. The elections a year ago ended in chaos amid accusations of fraud and a coup. Since then, Jeanine Áñez, a controversial right-wing conservative interim president, has ruled.
Do Bolivians want “21st century socialism”?
Due to the corona pandemic, this transition period lasted much longer than planned, but supporters of MAS, the “movement for socialism” of former President Evo Morales, in particular, did not want to accept another postponement of the new elections. .
“Bolivians will regain our democracy and our country on October 18. Unfortunately we lost it to the traitors to the country,” says Luis Arce, the MAS party candidate, who is clearly ahead in all the polls. The economics professor is Morales’s desired successor, who led Bolivia with his “21st century socialism” down a special left-wing populist path.
His main rival candidate is the liberal conservative Carlos Mesa, who was president before Morales. He is convinced that Bolivians do not want to continue in this direction: more than 65 percent of Bolivians did not want the MAS to return to power, he says.
Highlands against lowlands, poor against rich
After the October 2019 elections, observers from the Organization of American States discovered evidence of electoral fraud. Serious riots broke out and Morales called new elections and left the country.
More recently, the army and police command had asked him to withdraw, which is why Morales and his followers still speak of a “coup,” a coup. Political opponents of the MAS argue against Morales not being allowed to run for office last year under the constitution, plus the attempted electoral fraud. The atmosphere is tense. In the electoral campaign, opponents were alternatively insulted as “coup plotters” or as “swindlers and terrorists.”
The Andean highlands against the lowlands of the Amazon, the indigenous against the whites, the poor against the rich, the old against the new elites: the MAS has its strongholds in the highlands, in rural areas, with the indigenous population. In the cities, however, Mesa is ahead, in the conservative lowlands the right-wing politician Luis Camacho.
Possible more protests
The choice is also complicated because Bolivia was badly affected by the pandemic, meanwhile the health system had collapsed. Meanwhile, the numbers have decreased, there are again free beds in hospitals. But in Bolivia voting is compulsory and there is no postal vote. The newly occupied electoral authority wants to prevent contagion through distance rules, mask requirements and disinfection of surfaces.
Arce wouldn’t necessarily need half the votes to win the first ballot. According to Bolivian suffrage, 40 percent would be enough, but only if the runner-up is more than ten percentage points behind. According to polls, the decision is more likely to only be made in a runoff between Arce and Mesa. Then Mesa could unite the voices of the MAS opponents in conflict.
In view of the polarization in Bolivia, it is not certain that the loser in the elections will accept defeat; protests and riots could also break out again. And unlike in the past, the president will have a hard time finding a majority in parliament. Quick count trends should be available Monday morning according to German time.
