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A critic of the Kremlin, the president of the United States or the well-known climate activist? Who will receive the Nobel Peace Prize this year is still open. According to experts, one of them will definitely walk away empty-handed.
Thunberg or Trump, WHO or Black Lives Matter, an award for journalists or another award for peacemakers in Africa? Once again, speculation grows about who will receive the Nobel Peace Prize this year. Therefore, the world looks with enthusiasm to Oslo, where the Norwegian Nobel Committee will reveal the secret of the name of this year’s winner.
Bookmakers believe in Thunberg and WHO
If peace researchers have their way, this time the award could go to a journalists’ organization, human rights activist or pro-democracy activist. Bookies, on the other hand, believe in the World Health Organization and climate activist Greta Thunberg, and one in the US.
According to the Nobel Committee, a total of 318 candidates were nominated for the prestigious award, including 211 personalities and 107 organizations. This is the fourth highest number of nominees since the award was first presented in 1901.
The committee has traditionally kept the names of the nominees secret for 50 years. But several of those eligible to nominate, including politicians, academics and former Nobel Peace Prize winners, have revealed who they have nominated to the jury in Oslo. Consequently, Thunberg is definitely in the running, but so are the people of Hong Kong, fighting for democracy, whistleblower Edward Snowden, and Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.
The nomination says “nothing”
However, a nomination doesn’t have to mean anything. “Being nominated for the Peace Prize says nothing about the views of the Norwegian Nobel Committee,” said Nobel Foundation executive director Lars Heikensten of the German Press Agency in Scandinavia. “A nomination does not in itself mean that you are close to receiving the Nobel Peace Prize.”
The same applies in case the experts and the bookmakers are among your favorites: Greta Thunberg experienced that last year: although the young Swede was considered one of the favorites, the 2019 award went to the prime minister from Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, although many experts also had him high in the note.
Who could it be this time? The nomination deadline already gives an initial indication: the candidates for this year had to present themselves before January 31. This means that a price tag for the WHO, which is ubiquitous in the pandemic, is considered unlikely – after all, the crown crisis did not begin its devastating course around the world until spring. The situation is likely to be similar for Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tichanovskaya, as the situation in her country only worsened after the presidential elections in August.
The fight for human rights must be the center of attention
At the Stockholm Sipri Peace Research Institute, it is believed that the Nobel Committee could consider an award this time for the fight for human rights or the environment. In the world of conflict, peace and security, there are currently only a few signs of progress, said Sipri director Dan Smith of the dpa. Meanwhile, there is a clear link between peace and climate change, as it affects political stability and the well-being of people. According to Smith, this could lead to an award for Thunberg along with other young activists from around the world.
In times of debates about fake news and attacks on reporters, other Nobel experts point out that it may be time for a prize to be awarded to independent journalism, something like this has never been seen in the history of the Nobel. “Journalists are often on the front line and reporting on war and peace,” said the director of the Oslo peace research institute Prio, Henrik Urdal of the dpa. The international community needed accurate information to assess and respond to conflicts.
Urdal: Living in a world of fake news as a challenge
Therefore, an organization of journalists tops Urdal’s list of favorites: the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ). Reporters Without Borders (RSF) would also be worthy candidates in this category, according to Urdal. “We live in a world where fake news is a great challenge for democratic societies,” he recently said on a podcast. Therefore, independent rapporteurs are absolutely essential for democracies.
Young activists such as Alaa Salah from Sudan, Hajar Sharif from Libya and Ilwad Elman from Somalia are also among Urdal’s favorites. The name Alexei Navalny is also on his list. The poisoning of the Kremlin critic clearly reflected one thing, Urdal said: “This just shows that there are anti-democratic forces in Russia that are very opposed to the political changes that Alexei Navalny and others are advocating.”
Researchers Agree: Trump Won’t Win It
Meanwhile, peace researchers agree that one person will not be: US President Donald Trump. It was proposed by Scandinavian MPs for the 2021 award, but someone is also supposed to have nominated it for this year. “This president has created peace around the world,” White House spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany said recently on Fox News. Trump himself had already said last year that he would receive the Nobel Prize “for many things”, “if they were delivered fairly, which is not the case.” However, you currently have completely different concerns due to your corona infection.
“I just don’t see it,” Smith says at a price to Trump and in view of his withdrawals from the Paris Global Climate Agreement and the Iran nuclear deal. Urdal was even clearer in his podcast: “The chances of Donald Trump winning are absolutely nil. Not because he’s Donald Trump, but because he doesn’t deserve it.” This does not mean that you cannot calculate the price at a later time, but that you must first do “a lot of good and less bad”. Urdal went on to say, “I think he will get the Nobel Prize in Literature for his tweets instead of the Nobel Peace Prize.”
