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The people of the United States elect a new president on November 3. Republican President Donald Trump is Running for a Second Term; is challenged by former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democrats.
Biden has been leading the polls nationwide for weeks. The data analysts at the US website FiveThirtyEight collect the results from the numerous survey institutes and weight them based on their statistical quality. Consequently, Biden’s lead over Trump has been at least around six percentage points for months.
However, these national polls reveal less about the likely outcome of the elections than appears at first glance. Since Americans do not directly elect their president, they decide the composition of the so-called Electoral College. This body, made up of 538 voters, will vote for the president in mid-December.
Each state sends between three and 55 voters, depending on its population. The winner-take-all principle decides almost everywhere: the electorate votes for the candidate who has received the most votes in their state. It doesn’t matter if the majority in the state is huge or thin.
If you want to know how things really are in the Trump-Biden race, you need to look at the majority relations in the states.
In many states, the election is considered practically decided: people there traditionally vote with a clear majority for the candidate of one or the other party. For example, Biden leads in the populous states of California (55 voters) and New York (29), where Democrats regularly win elections. Trump is far ahead in the Republican states of Tennessee (11), Alabama (9) and Kentucky (9).
The races are tighter in some states. The electoral results there decisively determine the balance of power in the Electoral College. In some places, the election result is completely open.
Particularly controversial states include:
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Florida (29 voters) and Ohio (18) are classic “swing states.” In the last six presidential elections, the Democratic candidate three times and the Republican candidate three times. Also in 2020, polls suggest that the race will be closed.
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Texas (38 voters), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15) and Arizona (11) have long been dominated by Republicans (in some cases with exceptions in individual elections). This time, Biden’s victory cannot be ruled out.
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In the three industrialized states of Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10), Trump won the first Republican victory since the 1980s, winning decisive voters. This time around, the polls see an advantage for Biden.
This article will be continually updated.
