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Trump’s calculation is as follows: If his fans vote for him en masse, it will be enough for victory. So you don’t have to worry about new voters or alternate voters. But the first survey results since the Covid diagnosis show losses stronger than ever. Has Trump bet on the wrong horse?
Even if Donald Trump organized his discharge from the hospital on Tuesday as if he were returning from a victorious campaign: according to the latest polls, the hot electoral campaign phase, in which his corona infection has now fallen, is not easy for the president United. Consequently, his Democratic rival Joe Biden is currently in the lead in seven of the eight battle states, the highly competitive states in which both parties have a chance to win an election. With an eight-voter lead, the Michigan and Wisconsin Democrats could easily win. In New Hampshire, Biden would currently win by 10 voters.
Trump is clearly behind in early polls after his corona infection, even if his supporters, including the television station Fox News, interpret his behavior in a fundamentally positive way. “Virtually no matter what Trump does, he always has a positive spin,” says US expert Simon Wendt of the University of Frankfurt. “In this case, he is celebrated as a hero who bravely stood up to the virus.”
But the latest polls suggest that two-thirds of American citizens believe it is a mistake that Trump has unnecessarily exposed himself to the risk of infection. In terms of numbers, these critics should also include moderate Republicans and undecided people.
“I think voters who were still considering voting for Trump or not, this might have induced them to lean towards Biden,” Wendt speculates. “It doesn’t look good at all for Trump.” According to the New York Times, polls show the worst result for the president yet. If voters voted exactly according to his answer in the poll, then Biden would have the votes of 375 voters to Donald Trump’s 163.
For Biden it is between 319 and 219
The experience of the 2016 Trump: Clinton duel shows, however, that election results can differ greatly from polls. Therefore, the “Times” statistics have included such deviations in a second forecast. But even after adjusting this value, Biden would still win with 319 votes to 219. “For months, Trump mainly tried to mobilize his regular voters. They had to vote so massively that he had a majority in the Electoral College (the electoral body) Meanwhile, it has been shown that this plan will probably not work. ”
The setback that the president is now also suffering on the issue of vaccination appears almost only as a footnote: since the beginning of the pandemic, Trump had presented the coronavirus as a problem for which there is a very simple solution: the development of a vaccine. It’s not a big deal from the point of view of the president, who publicly promised that a suitable drug would be approved before the November 3 election date.
To keep this promise, according to US media, Trump had lobbied the FDA and tried to weaken its guidelines for approvals. But since the FDA released its regulations for expedited approval of a corona vaccine on Tuesday, it has become clear: nothing will be done before November 3. In the last test phase, which is currently preparing for two US companies, a follow-up period of two months should be observed. This makes it impossible for both manufacturers to bring their preparation to market before Election Day.
“A vaccine would have been celebrated by his regular voters,” but according to Simon Wendt, it would not have brought Trump any additional votes. Most in the US have always been skeptical about the extremely rapid development of these preparations, which should now only take a few months instead of five to ten years. The main thing now is to convince the many skeptics that the vaccine is safe. “A swift approval could even have hurt Trump in this regard.” However, the president sees his strategy hampered by the new approval guidelines. He tweeted that it was “another political attack” against him as president.
