[ad_1]
Russia and Turkey play an important role in escalating the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. Other countries have little influence.
By Silvia Stöber, tagesschau.de
The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone has reached a new level of escalation. For the first time since the ceasefire agreement in the early 1990s, both sides are conducting military operations along the entire conflict line. The artillery shells also hit the Nagorno-Karabakh capital, Stepanakert.
Fighting had broken out again in recent weeks. Already in mid-July, the enemy armed forces were fighting with heavy artillery north of the actual conflict zone. More than 15 soldiers and civilians died in the clashes that lasted for several days.
Since then he has remained relatively calm on the front lines, but the situation is extremely tense. Since then, both sides have conducted military exercises and provoked their opponents with rhetoric and symbolic acts.
Turkey supports Azerbaijan
Turkey positioned itself on the Azerbaijani side even more than in previous years. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, then and now, has voiced serious accusations against Armenia. He promised military aid to the Turkish-speaking sister state of Azerbaijan to take back Nagorno-Karabakh, which controls Armenia.
Turkey has already shown its military support in recent weeks. The Turkish General Staff traveled to Baku to talk with Azerbaijani military leaders, where they also gave the starting signal for joint military exercises, including in the Azerbaijani enclave of Nakhchivan. It is unclear whether the Turkish armed forces have completely withdrawn since then, especially as there have been reports of plans to establish Turkish military bases in Nakhchivan. further
Turkey and Azerbaijan had already concluded strategic military agreements with the guarantee of mutual assistance in recent years. However, Turkey held back militarily and diplomatically for a long time, taking into account Russia, which claims that the southern Caucasus is a safety zone upstream south of its borders.
Russia upstream safety zone
Russia’s action in the conflict is causing anger and rage in Azerbaijan and Armenia. Because the leadership in Moscow has been supplying arms to both sides for years. At the same time, Russia is the protecting power of Armenia. In the framework of the Russian-led “Organization for Collective Security”, there is an assistance clause comparable to that of NATO. Thousands of Russian soldiers and border troops are stationed in Armenia.
However, the assistance clause does not apply to Nagorno-Karabakh, and the two Russian military bases are located far from the conflict region, but close to the Turkish border. During the military exercises in recent weeks, Turkish and Russian troops have moved closer.
While Turkey is becoming increasingly offensive, Russia is engaging in diplomacy and trying to persuade Armenians and Azerbaijanis to hold talks. Russia is using the unresolved conflict to secure its influence in the region. But in an open war, Russia could lose control and thus open the door not only to Turkey, but also to southern Iran and the increasingly interested China.
Diplomacy at the end
With its diplomatic engagement, Russia fills a gap left by the United States and the EU. The Americans, along with Russia and France, lead the “Minsk Group” which, within the framework of the OSCE since the ceasefire in the early 1990s, is supposed to negotiate a lasting peace. But none of the painstakingly negotiated agreements, such as the so-called Madrid Principles of 2007, were ever implemented.
While Armenia was creating more and more facts in Nagorno-Karabakh (a third road to the area is now planned), Azerbaijani leaders are increasingly angered by the fact that they cannot exercise full sovereignty over the area within the boundaries. confirmed by international law. However, the question of the security of the Armenian population also remains open.
As a consequence, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev recently removed his former Foreign Minister and Liaison Officer with Armenia and the Minsk Group. He practically declared that the negotiation format had failed. He suggested that the United States and France were influenced by the Armenian diaspora who lived there.
Strengthened by Turkish support, Aliyev also criticized Russia more and more openly, for example, for arms deliveries to Armenia.
That is why it is important that Erdogan and Vladimir Putin, as in the rest of Syria or Lebanon, contain the escalation together, as long as Armenia and Azerbaijan cannot reach an agreement and other states do not get more involved.
