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Wednesday 23 September 2020
The trend of new infections in Germany has been increasing for weeks. At the same time, intensive care units remain relatively empty. Even with the Covid deaths, the Germans so far have spared relatively lightly. So there is no need to worry? The RKI says: No.
In its current management report, the Robert Koch Institute cautions against minimizing the pandemic situation and sees signs of a turnaround. Because even if the situation currently looks good overall, more older people are contracting the coronavirus, which, as the RKI emphasizes, has not become less dangerous.
For several weeks now, the German health authorities have registered an increasing number of new infections. This increase in itself would not be dramatic. Because, writes the RKI, after all, the testing capabilities have also been significantly expanded. Not only people who stood out because of the severity of symptoms or who were exposed to the virus in the context of a severe case are now increasingly being evaluated, but wider sectors of the population as well. More infected and sick people were identified. In addition, more and more courses of milder disease or symptom-free corona infections were discovered. At the start of the pandemic in April or May, these would have gone unnoticed due to lack of evidence.
Also, the average age of discovered infections has dropped significantly since the first peak in April. Younger people – this is well known and now well documented as well – have a lower average risk than older people of developing a severe course of the disease and dying after a Sars-CoV-2 infection.
According to the RKI, both points lead to the current finding: “The proportion of deaths among the 19 Covid cases reported since the 30th calendar week is continuously below 1%. This compares to the maximum of 7% in the 16th calendar week. 2020 clearly diminished “. The RKI is comparing the week after Easter (week 16) with the phase of July 20-26 (week 30).
The proportion of Covid 19 patients who are treated in an intensive care unit or even need to be ventilated is consistently low.
We have to protect our senior citizens
Virologists and epidemiologists see no reason to give the go-ahead. The team that surrounds the director of the institute, Lothar Wieler, emphasizes that there is “no indication of a change in the virus”, that is, decrease in infectivity or less harmfulness. Furthermore, treatment options remain “limited” in severe illness.
The RKI is particularly concerned about the threatened scenario of further spread of the coronavirus in the older age groups. And this is exactly what there are first signs. According to official data, from week 37, that is, from September 7, there is an increase in the number of cases in the age group over 60 years. That is an alarming development.
Because at the beginning of the pandemic in Germany, the age groups of 15 to 34 years and 35 to 59 years were the first to have a higher incidence, followed shortly after by the group of more than 80 years, as the RKI explains. After the fall in incidence for all age groups, with the renewed increase in the number of cases starting in mid-July, the highest incidence was observed in the 15-34 age group, followed by the 5-34 age group. 14 years old and 35 to 59 years old. Over the past 14 days, the proportion of people over 60 among those infected has increased, even if only slightly, but significantly.
“If more and more older people are re-infected, more serious cases and deaths will reoccur,” predicts the RKI. Germany can only prevent serious illness and death by reducing the spread of Sars-CoV-2. “Therefore, it is still necessary”, it is said, “that the entire population is committed to protecting against infections.” In practice, for example, the rules of distance and hygiene should be “consistent, also outdoors”. Indoor spaces should be ventilated frequently and, where appropriate, a mouth and nose cover should be used “correctly”. “Gatherings of people, especially indoors, should be avoided as much as possible and celebrations should be limited to the closest family and friends.”
RKI’s management report lists the situation in Hamm and Würzburg as an impressive negative example. The largest number of cases in Hamm can be largely attributed to more than 80 Covid 19 cases that are related to a wedding celebration. More than 200 identified guests are currently in quarantine and subject to mandatory testing. The rise in corona infections in Würzburg, in turn, could be traced to the spread of Covid-19 after an outbreak at a shisha bar and other cases in the private setting of bar visitors.
