Nightmare Brexit: Boris Johnson’s Horror Scene

At the end of the year, Britain could end up with no deal with the EU and no deal with the United States. There is also the risk of a massive economic downturn through a second crown lockdown.

Has Boris Johnson been fully played? At the beginning of the year he promised on Twitter: “This will be a fantastic year for Britain.” At the end of the year, the UK faces disaster on several levels.

After Johnson’s announcement that he might not adhere to the exit deal with the EU and that he will deliberately violate international law with a new single market law, a no-deal Brexit is, again, more likely. In any case, the EU made it clear: if Britain is not loyal to the treaty, there will be no agreement on future trade relations.

Last week, the head of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was pessimistic about future relations with Great Britain in her speech on the state of the European Union: “Every day the chances of us reaching an agreement on time. “

At a special summit on September 24 and 25, the EU wants to discuss the status and future of the Brexit negotiations. So far there is not even a draft text for a trade agreement between the two parties. In order to allow sufficient time for the ratification and implementation of the treaty, a final version should be available by the end of October at the latest.

Johnson can, for the moment, avoid a rebellion

Furthermore, Johnson’s attempt to re-pierce the old EU exit deal is meeting resistance within his own ranks. 30 Conservative MPs, including staunch Brexiters, spoke out against Johnson’s Single Market Act. Only with concessions could Johnson prevent an open rebellion shortly before last week’s vote. The five former prime ministers still alive also publicly distanced themselves from Johnson’s Brexit plans.

By threatening to violate the exit agreement that he himself negotiated with the EU, Johnson has also alienated the American Democrats. His presidential candidate Joe Biden made very clear what he thinks about Johnson’s behavior and the associated danger of a hard border between Ireland, which remains in the EU, and Northern Ireland, which is leaving the EU with Britain: “We cannot allow That Good Friday Agreement, which brought peace to Northern Ireland, of which Brexit is a victim. Any trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom must be based on respect for that agreement and avoid the return of a hard border. Period ” .

If Biden is elected as the new US president in November, all British hopes for the “phenomenal” trade deal with the United States promised by Donald Trump could be dashed. But even if Trump remains in power, Johnson shouldn’t cheer prematurely. With his kind of politics, Trump has repeatedly shown that he is primarily concerned with national and personal advantages, and that he does not feel bound by promises or agreements.

But that’s not all: Britain is in the midst of a second corona wave that could again immensely damage the country’s economy, which is currently in a slight recovery phase. During the first peak of the pandemic, the UK economy plunged 20.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, a negative record in Europe.

Britain threatens a massive rise in the unemployment rate

Y: The British part-time model will expire at the end of October. This temporarily secured around nine million jobs. It is highly doubtful that this will be successful in the long term. The Bank of England expects the unemployment rate to rise from around 4 percent today to 7.5 percent by the end of the year.

Britain is also the deadliest country in Europe, with nearly 42,000 deaths per crown so far. The ailing British health system NHS (National Health System) already faced great challenges with the first wave of infections.

A second lockdown, which Johnson no longer wants to rule out, would hit the UK economy hard again. A tough Brexit, combined with customs duties and import controls, and worst-case border chaos, is also expected to lead to another economic downturn. Ultimately, Britain could become a country paralyzed both economically and in domestic and foreign policy and, as it was in the 1960s and 1970s, the “sick of Europe”.

Johnson provokes and alienates allies and potential business partners

All of this should primarily drive the British Prime Minister to ensure that his country is as good as it can be after leaving the EU and in post-crown times. But Johnson goes another way. It provokes and alienates allies and potential business partners. You unnecessarily question the credibility of your country. Who wants to work with a partner who believes that violating international law is a legitimate means to achieve their goals?

Barnier’s Footsteps – Named after the EU’s main negotiator for Brexit negotiations, Michel Barnier, show the different levels of possible trade relations between the EU and Britain. (Source: dpa)

Another problem: Johnson does not present any solution that is acceptable to the other party. Johnson, like Trump, is primarily concerned with national interests. Like Trump, he forgets that politics and economics don’t work that way in times of globalization, at least not permanently.

Johnson still doesn’t want to understand what Angela Merkel made unequivocally clear in 2016: Brexit is not going to be a selective choice. The UK cannot free itself from EU commitments while still benefiting from all the benefits the EU has to offer.

Johnson still has some time to avoid at least part of the impending catastrophe for his country and still reach a deal with the EU. A Johnson trait could be an advantage in this case: the British prime minister has shown several times that he has no problem in radically changing his beliefs and views.