Ursula von der Leyen: uses the first scandal to her advantage

ORrsula von der Leyen used the resignation of Irish Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan to reorganize her commission. She occupied two important departments on Tuesday morning: Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis will negotiate trade agreements with the whole world on behalf of the EU.

Irish policy Mairead McGuinness, who is new to the Commission, is supposed to take over Dombrovskis’ portfolio and drive the integration of European financial markets. With this castling of personnel, von der Leyen took advantage of the first commission scandal of her tenure in office, and consolidated her own position through the selection of personnel.

Von der Leyen had to make two decisions: on the one hand, he had to decide who should move in as the new Irish commissioner at the Berlaymont headquarters. Von der Leyen chose Mairead McGuinness.

The Irishwoman has been in the European Parliament for 16 years, is valued in Brussels far beyond her parliamentary group, and knows the operating rules of Brussels. Von der Leyen likely also obtained the necessary approval from the European Parliament for the personnel decision with her choice.

That decision was expected. At the express request of von der Leyens, Ireland had nominated a woman and a man for the position. Before taking office, the President of the Commission had promised that the Commission would have a balanced mix of women and men.

De facto it has achieved this parity; the replacement was a unique opportunity to keep his promise. With von der Leyen himself there will be 13 female inspectors and 14 female inspectors.

The male candidate, former Vice President of the European Investment Bank, Andrew McDowell, who has just left office, had virtually no chance of filling the position and should have used the candidacy primarily to rack up bonus points in Dublin.

However, Von der Leyen made it clear from the start that the Irish surrogate could not automatically take over the influential department of commerce. Instead, he handed over the important portfolio to Deputy Commissioner Dombrovskis, a move that had been speculated on since the Latvian politician temporarily took over the business portfolio after Hogan’s departure.

Trade policy is central to the work of the EU Commission because it is one of the few areas in which the EU is only authorized to act. The Trade Commissioner and his staff negotiate agreements around the world that apply to all 27 member states.

The challenges in this area are greater today than they have been in decades. The EU is in the middle of a trade dispute with the US that needs to be resolved in the coming months.

At the same time, the Commission is negotiating a highly political investment deal with China, among other trade issues, which could see progress for the first time in many years after the US presidential election.

It is also necessary to clarify future trade relations with Great Britain after Brexit. It is an important political arena and the terrain is delicate and highly political.

Therefore, the EU representative needs a certain position when negotiating with the Trump administration or the Chinese leadership. Former journalist and agricultural economist McGuinness has never held high political office.

This is not the case for Valdis Dombrovskis, who has been a member of the European Commission in changing roles since 2014 and has coordinated the economic policy of the influential authority as one of three executive vice presidents since December.

Warning to capitals

Prior to that, he was Prime Minister of his home country Latvia and can therefore negotiate on an equal footing with other heads of government. “I am honored and delighted that the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, gave me the portfolio of operations,” he thanked her.

However, the fact that he gets the trading book is also a warning to national capitals: they cannot expect to maintain influential portfolios when they send new commissioners to Brussels. The commission is still angry that the Irish government demanded consequences from Hogan very early in the crown scandal and thus pushed for him to resign.

Von der Leyen has thus accomplished the feat of making it clear that, on the one hand, the same moral rules and requirements should apply to EU commissioners as they do to national politicians, and it is not a matter of course beforehand. On the other hand, it also disciplines national capitals so as not to unnecessarily compromise their positions as commissioners.

With the castling, the president of the Commission also trusts in stability: moving only two heads, she avoids the disturbances in her school, which is finely balanced according to parties, geography, genders and egos, which already follows the calendar of the legislature because of of the Covid crisis.

Like his predecessor Hogan, Dombrovskis belongs to the EPP family of conservative European parties. If von der Leyen had elevated liberal Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders, who is also said to have expressed interest, the party’s proportion would no longer have been respected.

Dombrovskis is also a guarantee of stability. The Commission is currently debating whether the EU will continue to rely on a rules-based trade policy, as Hogan advocates, or whether it will become more protectionist to protect European companies.

Protectionist trade policy avoided

Like his predecessor, Latvian Dombrovskis comes from a small, open economy that focuses on trade and investment. If, for example, French Industrial Commissioner Thierry Breton had received the trading book, the approach would likely have changed.

In this way, von der Leyen has made the most of Hogan’s resignation: he has taken another step towards his promise of gender parity, he has ensured that the same moral requirements are imposed on commissioners as on national politicians, and thus in the image of authority. Improved in the long term, while capitals are disciplined and stability is assured in the Commission and in an important trade policy.