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The US elections are approaching, the electoral campaign is slowly entering the decisive phase. Joe Biden is ahead according to polls, but Donald Trump is catching up. How close is the race? An overview.
US President Donald Trump and his challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden compete in the US elections on November 3 about the presidency. The election campaign is taking place at a time of crisis, the crown pandemic has hit the United States hard and since the spring there have been massive protests against racism and police violence in the country after the death of the African American George Floyd.
Until the summer, Trump’s crisis management meant he was far behind Democrat Biden in national polls and was only able to catch up slowly in the fall. Nationally, Biden’s average leadership in polls has ended 8 percent.
Who is really ahead?
The problem: National polls in the US provide little information on who will ultimately be able to move into the White House. In the 2016 U.S. elections, Democrat Hillary Clinton finished with 48.2 percent of the vote, ahead of Republican Trump with 46.1 percent. The end is known, Trump became president of the United States anyway.
This is mainly due to the American electoral system. The president is not elected directly by the people, but by 538 electors and voters. Each state has a certain number of them depending on the size of the population. The candidate with the most votes in the state basically registers the entire state electorate for himself. Exception: In Maine and Nebraska, electorate votes are divided by majorities in electoral districts. The overall state winner receives two more votes.
Therefore, predictions about the US elections are comparatively difficult. But with a look at opinion polls in the various US states, you can estimate how close the race really is.
Current forecasts: By average calculations from “270toWin,” a nonpartisan political side, Biden is clearly in the lead after voters. The race has yet to be decided.
How is the situation in the transition states?
Biden’s advantage over Trump is not as great as it might seem. US presidential elections are often decided in a few “swing states” – these are US states where in the past there was often a shifting Democratic or Republican majority. In some of them the race is close and there are many voters.
US presidential elections were often decided in Ohio, Michigan, and Florida. In these US states, the race is close, including Biden’s race against Trump.
Current forecast: In the 2020 U.S. elections, it is particularly surprising that polls in Texas predict a relatively tight outcome. If Trump loses in the Republicans’ home country (38 electoral and electoral), he will probably lose the election as well. For Biden, a victory in Florida (29 electoral men and women) would be a big step toward the presidency. Here Trump was able to prevail against Clinton in 2016 (1.6 percent).
Democrats or Republicans, who will win the majority in the Senate and Congress?
In November, however, not only will the president of the United States be elected, but also the House of Representatives and the Senate.
In the House of Representatives, based on current “270toWin” calculations, it appears that Democrats could defend or even expand their majority. The 435 members of the House of Representatives each represent an electoral district and are directly elected every two years. The survey shown reflects trends in constituencies. Even if the Democrats lost all races that are currently considered “close,” they should still retain a majority.
The battle for a majority in the Senate seems closer. About a third of the Senate is re-elected every two years. This third is highlighted in the graphic.
The Senate is made up of 100 senators. Each state has two seats. In states that have to grant a mandate, it is decided by majority vote. The survey values shown reflect trends across the states.
Current forecast: Polls currently see Democrats at an advantage. If this is confirmed, the party could win majorities in Congress and the Senate in addition to the presidency of the United States. That would give them a lot of leeway over the next two years and would be a huge defeat for Trump and the Republicans.
