Trump catches up on swing states: does Biden experience a Hillary Clinton horror scenario? – Policy abroad



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The power of swing states: a danger to the Democratic presidential candidate, Joe Biden (77)!

The United States will hold its 59th presidential election on November 3. Some states have a dramatic impact on the outcome of elections: the undecided states!

Der frühere Vizepräsident Joe Biden bei einer Wahlkampfveranstaltung in WilmingtonPhoto: Andrew Harnik / AP Photo / dpa

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Former Vice President Joe Biden at a campaign rally in WilmingtonPhoto: Andrew Harnik / AP Photo / dpa

Was it sind swing states?

Swinging states are states where both Democrats and Republicans have a high chance of winning. Media: Electoral victory is on the brink here!

Because: In conservative states like Oklahoma or Texas, Republicans can expect electoral victories with relative safety. In liberal California, on the other hand, the Democrats are very likely to enjoy a victory.

In the undecided states, which include the states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, there is fierce competition for electoral victory – everything is open here!

And exactly THAT could cost Joe Biden the desired presidency and repeat the horror scenario of the 2016 Democrats. Because Hillary Clinton (72), who lost to Donald Trump (74) four years ago, failed due to the undecided states. Although her values were significantly better in some transition states compared to Biden …


2020 US Elections: US Presidential Election: Contested States

Take Wisconsin for example

In August 2016, Hilary Clinton’s lead in Wisconsin was 5.3 points, according to the policy website “RealClearPolitics.” Not a single poll on the website showed that then-Republican candidate Donald Trump had a chance to win the state. But when the going got tough in November, Trump beat Wisconsin by 0.7 points!

And now, in 2020, Biden’s lead in Wisconsin is just 4.4 points, lower than Clinton’s. And that’s despite the corona pandemic and economic collapse!

Sie dachte, der Sieg wäre sicher: Hillary Clinton bei einer Wahlkampfveranstaltung 2016 in FloridaPhoto: People Image Agency

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She thought victory was certain: Hillary Clinton at a 2016 campaign rally in FloridaPhoto: People Image Agency

Florida is extremely important for electoral victory

In other undecided states, the former vice president also makes it worse:

► Biden’s lead is 4.2 points in Pennsylvania. By comparison, Hillary Clinton had a 6.5-point lead on the same day in 2016. 2016 bottom line: Trump wins.

► In Michigan, Biden has a 2.6 point lead. Two weeks ago it was 7 points! Clinton had 7.3 points more than Trump at the same time. 2016 final result: Trump wins.

► In Florida, however, Biden is 1.8 points above Trump’s value. But: At the same time, Clinton had a 2.1 point lead! 2016 final result: Trump wins.

In the United States electoral system, a candidate receives all electoral votes in a state, no matter how tight or clear the vote is. The amount of electoral votes that actually are at the end varies according to the population of the respective state.

Florida is the third most populous state in the United States. It means: If Trump wins Florida now, none of the other changing states will play a role …

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