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The increase in the so-called reproductive number above the critical mark of 1 to 1.13 on Monday is closely watched and often viewed with concern, after it has been used by politicians and virologists in recent weeks as a decisive criterion for evaluating the infection situation and take action against it. He had explained the spread of the new corona virus and its possible loosening.
The number of replications indicates how many more people are infected by a person infected with the coronavirus, purely arithmetically. Experts recalculate the value daily using various estimates. The indication that an infected person infects 1.13 more people on average does not reflect the current situation. For methodological reasons, the value refers to infections that occurred some time ago. In Berlin, this figure was 0.87 last week. The lowest possible value is important to track down infection strings so that they can be broken with quarantine measures.
According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), however, it is currently not possible to conclusively assess whether “the trend of new infections that has been declining in recent weeks has continued or whether the number of cases has increased again.” On Monday, the value was above the critical limit of “1” for the second consecutive day. On Sunday night, the RKI announced in its management report that the number of views is currently estimated at 1.13, after 1.1 on Saturday night.
The RKI has repeatedly emphasized that for the epidemic to decrease, the number of reproductions must be less than 1. In early May, according to RKI information, the value was between 0.7 and 0.8 for several days. Last Wednesday, the RKI reported the value at 0.65 (data status May 6, 00:00), since then it has increased.
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The RKI has repeatedly said in recent days that statistical fluctuations are amplified by lower numbers overall, making their meaning and interpretation more difficult. In any case, the R value is always subject to a certain degree of uncertainty, the number of reproductions cannot be used only as a “measure of effectiveness / need for measures”. However, it was emphasized: “The increase in the estimated R value makes it necessary to monitor development very carefully over the next few days.” This includes the absolute number of new infections each day. To consider the severity of the diseases, particularly the affected groups and locations, and the traceability of the infection chains: the absolute number of new infections should be small enough to allow effective monitoring of the contact persons and not to overload the number of intensive care beds available. According to an RKI overview, the number of new infections reported per day has generally declined, with fluctuations, since early April.
Over the past week, the number of new daily infections in Germany had increased significantly before falling again over the weekend: according to the Tagesspiegel, 1,164 new infections were reported last Friday, there were 753 on Saturday, 554 on Sunday. Has observed regularly in recent weeks: Due to notification procedures, the number of new infections verified by testing is regularly higher in the second half of the week than at the beginning of the week. Many reports are not complete over the weekend, and apparently more people go to the doctor or hospital during the week to get tested. Of course, it is also important how many tests are carried out in individual regions, cities or companies, and also whether they are carried out on the basis of a specific suspicion of infection or whether they are, for example, serial tests for occupational safety. in entire companies or other groups, such as: Example, the soccer Bundesliga and many hospitals are currently performing.
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If more than 50 new infections per 100,000 population are reported within a week in separate districts or cities, districts must react with concrete action. Across Germany, this figure is only 7.7 this Monday. There is currently a daily level count based on current county data, but also in many cities and counties that significantly exceed the average, including Pforzheim, Regensburg, and Bremen, which have between 20 and 30 new infections per 100,000 of their inhabitants. within a week. Several districts also exceed the upper limit of 50: in Coesfeld the value is 113, in Greiz at 78, in Sonneberg at 68 and in the city of Rosenheim at 60 (as of Monday, May 11 at 8 pm) .
More about the corona virus:
In total, there were 172,134 cases of infection in Germany on Monday, of which an estimated 145,600 have recovered. New infections are often due to outbreaks in nursing homes or refugees, individual companies, or slaughterhouses. More than 7,500 deaths in Germany have died from or with the virus. According to the Johns Hopkins University Census, more than four million infections have been detected worldwide and more than 278,000 deaths have been recorded.
More contagion through more movement?
Dirk Brockmann, an infectious disease modeling expert at the Humboldt University in Berlin, also emphasizes that the R-value is only a rough estimate and depends on many factors. However, a hypothesis can be derived from the increase from 0.65 to more than 1. Brockmann assumes that this is reflected in the fact that people have slowly returned to normal before the relaxation measures decided last Wednesday. You meet again a little more and generally travel more. That leads to more infections, according to the thesis. In general, the development of the infection process should be observed over a longer period. In general, the R value still ranges around 1, says Brockmann.
The federal and state governments agreed to significantly relax corona virus requirements, but at the same time decided to immediately implement a consistent restriction concept if more than 50 new infections per 100,000 population were registered within a week in rural or urban districts. (with dpa, AFP)
Transparency note: An earlier version of this text stated that new infections were reported last Friday in 1894. That is wrong. There were 1164. You can find all the current figures in our overview.
