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With the so-called reproductive number, one of the decisive values for the infection process in Germany has recently increased and has exceeded a critical value. The number indicates how many more people are infected on average by one infected person. According to the Robert Koch Institute on Saturday, the value was 1.10 (data status as of May 9 at midnight). The RKI has repeatedly emphasized that for the epidemic to decrease, the number of reproductions must be less than 1.
In early May, according to RKI information, the value was between 0.7 and 0.8 for several days. On Wednesday, the RKI gave the value at 0.65 (data status May 6, 00:00), since then it has continuously increased. How to read and interpret this development is anything but trivial.
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First of all, you should know that the indication that an infected person infects 1.10 more people on average does not reflect the current situation. For methodological reasons, the value refers to infections that occurred some time ago. Therefore, the possible effects on the course of the infection cannot be read, which can be attributed to the loosening of restrictions on Wednesday by the federal and state governments.
Furthermore, the RKI emphasizes in a statement about the greatest number of reproductions that the R value is always subject to a certain degree of uncertainty. Due to statistical fluctuations, which would be reinforced by lower numbers overall, it cannot yet be assessed whether the downward trend of new infections has continued in recent weeks, or whether the number of cases has increased again. “The increase in the estimated R value makes it necessary to watch development very carefully in the coming days,” writes the RKI.
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The number of views cannot be used only as a “measure of effectiveness / need for measures,” writes the RKI on its website. The absolute number of new infections each day and the severity of the diseases are also important. The absolute number of new infections should be small enough to allow effective follow-up of contact persons and not to overload the capacities of intensive care beds. According to an RKI overview, the number of new infections reported per day has decreased with fluctuations since early April.
Federal and state governments agreed to a significant relaxation of coronavirus requirements on Wednesday, but at the same time decided that a consistent restriction concept would be implemented immediately if more than 50 new infections per 100,000 population were registered within one week in counties or independent cities.
On Sunday, a daily level count, based on current county data, revealed multiple counties that exceeded the virus limit. There were around 172,300 cases of infection and more than 7,500 deaths across Germany on Sunday. According to the Johns Hopkins University Census, more than four million infections have been detected worldwide and more than 278,000 deaths have been recorded.
Dirk Brockmann, an infectious disease modeling expert at the Humboldt University in Berlin, emphasizes that the R value is only a rough estimate and depends on many factors. However, a hypothesis of the increase from 0.65 to 1.10 can be derived. This is reflected, Brockmann assumes, in the fact that people have slowly returned to normal before the relaxation measures decided on Wednesday. You meet again a little more and generally travel more. That leads to more infections, according to the thesis.
In general, the development of the infection process should be observed over a longer period. In general, the R value still ranges around 1, says Brockmann. (Tsp; dpa)
