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More than 60% of Americans say they always wear a mask in public, according to data compiled by the Institute for Health Assessment and Metrics (IHME) at the University of Washington. But more people will need to wear one if the US has any hope of mitigating its third major surge in infections.
Daily coronavirus cases in the country have increased more than 40% on average since the beginning of October, a sinister shift in the wrong direction as cold weather begins.
A new IHME model predicted that the total death count in the US could surpass 511,000 by the end of February, more than double the number of COVID-19 deaths the nation has seen so far.
But if 95% of the country wore masks, nearly 130,000 of those lives could be saved, the researchers found. A new report from Columbia University found that the Trump administration could have saved roughly the same number of lives by replicating public health interventions that other nations have adopted, including a universal mask mandate, faster closures, and a more cohesive national strategy. for testing and contact tracking.
Even if 85% of the country started wearing masks, according to the IHME model, some 96,000 fewer lives would be lost.
“Expanding the use of masks may be one of the ‘easy wins’ in America,” Christopher Murray, director of IHME, said at a news conference Friday. “It can delay the reimposition of social distancing mandates and it can save many, many lives.”
Their model suggests that near-universal mask use could prevent most states from having to implement severe travel restrictions, close public educational facilities, close non-essential businesses, implement stay-at-home orders, or restrict large gatherings in the future.
The masks, the researchers wrote, have “the potential to save the most lives while minimizing damage to the economy.”
A fall-winter wave could be the deadliest yet
The United States is looking at what many experts believe will be its worst increase in cases yet. All but four states have seen an increase in cases in the past two weeks, with the Midwest particularly hard hit.
Some public health leaders even expect this fall-winter surge to be more deadly than the spring-summer surge.
In the scenario that the IHME model considers most likely, states would close again once their daily per capita deaths reached eight out of every million residents. The model predicted that 45 states would reach that threshold by the end of February, with the highest rates of infections in Arizona, New Jersey and Louisiana.
But if masks were universally adopted, only nine states would reach that threshold before March, according to the model.
“If you increase the mass use, you are going to delay the reimposition of that mandate and move into the future, hopefully closer to when there is a vaccine available, the increase that is likely to occur,” Murray said.
However, preventing the outbreak entirely is off the table, he added.
“It’s very difficult at the point where we are in the United States, where there is so much community transmission of the virus, to avoid a sudden fall-winter surge, but we can certainly make it a lot smaller,” Murray said. “It should have been New Zealand or Australia and really avoid widespread community transmission if you really want to avoid that increase altogether.”
Barriers to universal masking
Unlike many countries, the United States faces an uphill battle to increase mask adoption. Some groups have come to view face covering as a political statement rather than an effective public health tool. Protesters across the country have spoken out against the mask mandates, saying they violate personal freedom.
“If you could talk to a normal random person in this city, wearing a mask is just unnecessary and stupid, and has been hyped by the mainstream media and fake news,” said Chloe Gray, a 24-year-old at the Marion County, Florida recently told Business Insider.
Sergio Flores / Getty
But some Americans, including former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, have changed their minds lately. After contracting COVID-19 in September, Christie said she regretted not wearing a mask at the White House Supreme Court nomination event for Justice Amy Coney Barrett.
“These small inconveniences can save your life, that of your neighbors and the economy,” Christie wrote in The Wall Street Journal after spending seven days in the intensive care unit. “Rarely has so little been asked for so much profit.”
Americans have already shown that masks can be universally adopted locally: A New York Times poll found that in New York, 99% of respondents in Flushing, Queens, wore masks in July, along with 97% of respondents in Park Slope, Brooklyn. Women in the survey were much more likely to wear a mask than men: The Times said it observed one in six women walking without a mask compared to nearly one in three men.
A May survey by researchers at the University of California, Berkeley and the University of Middlesex in London found that American men were more likely than women to agree with claims that wearing a face covering “wasn’t cool.” , “embarrassing” and “a sign of weakness.” The survey also found that fewer men than women said they believed they would be seriously affected by the virus, although data shows that men are more vulnerable to serious outcomes.
This skepticism towards masks has been amplified by President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly framed the wearing of masks as a volunteer and has held numerous campaign rallies where masks were not required.
“The highest rates of people choosing not to wear masks are Republican men,” Ingrid Katz, an assistant professor at Harvard Medical School, told Business Insider. “It has just become political that should never have been political.”
She added: “It’s a bit unfathomable to me that science can’t inform us.”
