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The graph currently posted on the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) website shows that more than 410,000 Americans may die from the new coronavirus by January 1, 2021. [Photo/Xinhua]
WASHINGTON – The updated projection of a key COVID-19 model shows that 410,000 Americans may die from the new coronavirus by January 1 of next year.
According to the new forecast published Thursday night by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, the daily death rate in the United States, due to seasonality and declining surveillance of the public, it would reach almost 3,000 per day. in December.
“Cumulative deaths expected on January 1 are 410,000; this is 225,000 deaths from now until the end of the year,” the prediction said.
People wearing masks walk through Green-Wood Cemetery in the Brooklyn borough of New York, the United States, April 19, 2020. [Photo/Xinhua]
If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, that is, no more government intervention is taken from now until January 1, the death toll could rise to 620,000 by January 1, according to the projection.
Increasing the use of masks to the levels seen in Singapore would reduce the cumulative death toll to 288,000, or 122,000 lives saved compared to the baseline scenario, according to the prediction. This would be a 30 percent reduction in deaths expected from now until the end of the year.
However, the use of masks continues to decline from a peak in early August, according to the projection. The declines are notable throughout the Midwest, including some states like Illinois and Iowa with a growing number of cases.
People jog on the National Mall in Washington, DC, the United States, Aug.26, 2020. [Photo/Xinhua]
Months after the pandemic, the United States has recorded more than 6.18 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 187,300 deaths as of Friday afternoon, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.
The number of reported cases peaked at around 70,000 cases per day at the end of July and has subsequently decreased to about 45,000 cases per day.
According to the IHME, the country is experiencing increased transmission in ten states, namely Idaho, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama, Virginia, West Virginia, Illinois, and Iowa.
The decline in cases in more populous states such as Texas, Florida and California has contributed to the nationwide decline in cases, the IHME said.
