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The Telegraph
‘We will see different viruses, some of them will be cause for concern’: expert warns of more mutations
An infectious disease expert warned on Wednesday that we should expect more variants of Covid-19 like the ones that have been driving large increases in infections in the UK and South Africa in recent months. Peter Horby, professor of emerging infectious diseases and global health at the University of Oxford, told Radio 4’s Today show: “This is clearly a different pattern emerging; we will see different viruses and some of them will be cause for concern.” Most experts agree that the variants of the virus that have emerged in the UK and South Africa are worrying enough to warrant further investigation. Are the UK and South African variants related? No. The variants are different but share many similar characteristics. Both the catchy B.1.1.7 in the UK and the 501.V2 in South Africa have mutations around the spike protein, the part of the virus that binds to host cells. However, they only have one mutation in common. But they are similar in that both are more transmissible and both appear to induce higher viral loads in those who do become infected. How easily do they spread? Experts say that both variants are more easily transmitted than other forms of the virus. A study by mathematical modelers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine on Christmas Eve delivered a stark warning about the transmissibility of the UK variant. He said a lockdown similar to the November restrictions would have very little impact on the spread of the new variant. In fact, the only way to prevent hospitals from overflowing would be to increase the vaccination rate of people from 500,000 to two million people a week and close schools for the entire month of January. There is no similar pattern in the South African variant, but experts cautioned that it appears to be spreading faster than during the country’s first wave of disease. In South Africa’s Western Cape province, which has been hit hardest by the new variant, there were 12 cases per 100,000 people on November 26. Just four weeks later, on December 17, there were 38 cases per 100,000 people. Is there a difference in who is most likely to get infected? There is also concern that both may affect children more than the previous variants, although it is clear that children do not get more seriously ill. Professor Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease modeler at Imperial College London, said early analyzes of how and where the UK variant is spreading have given “indications that it has a higher propensity to infect children.” “If it were true, then this could explain a significant proportion, perhaps even the majority, of the observed transmission increase,” he added. And South Africa’s health minister, Dr. Zweli Mkhize, warned that doctors have provided “anecdotal evidence” that “a higher proportion of younger patients with no comorbidities are critically ill.” He also urged young people not to attend the end of the year parties, asking them to “understand that now it is not just about thinking about others, but that you yourselves now run the same risk of dying from Covid-19.” Dr Julian Tang, a clinical virologist at the University of Leicester, said there could be a behavioral element in the spread in young people: more are now infected because there are more opportunities for the virus to spread while children are in school.
