Scientists trying to understand a new virus variant

Does it spread more easily? Make people sicker? Does it mean that treatments and vaccines won’t work? Questions are multiplying as fast as new variants of the coronavirus, especially the one that moves through England and is now appearing in the US and other countries.

Scientists say there is cause for concern and more to learn, but that the new variants should not cause alarm.

Concern has been mounting since before Christmas, when the British prime minister said the coronavirus variant seemed to spread more easily than previous ones and was moving rapidly across England. On Tuesday, Colorado health officials said they had found him there.

Here are some questions and answers about what is known so far about the virus.

Q: WHERE DOES THIS NEW VARIANT COME FROM?

A: New variants have been observed almost since the virus was first detected in China almost a year ago. Viruses often mutate or develop small changes as they reproduce and move through a population.

Most of the changes are trivial. “It’s the change of one or two letters in the genetic alphabet that doesn’t make much of a difference in the ability to cause disease,” said Dr. Philip Landrigan, a former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention scientist who leads a global health program at Boston College.

A more worrisome situation is when a virus mutates by changing the proteins on its surface to help it escape drugs or the immune system, or if it acquires many changes that make it very different from previous versions.

Q: HOW IS A VARIANT MADE DOMINANT?

A: That can happen if a variant takes hold and begins to spread in an area, or because “super spread” events helped it become established.

It can also happen if a mutation gives a new variant an advantage, such as helping it spread more easily than others that are circulating.

Scientists are still working to confirm whether the variant in England spreads more easily, but they are finding some evidence that it does. The variant “competes with the other strains and moves faster and infects more people, so it wins the race,” Landrigan said.

The British variant was first detected in September, WHO officials said. A new South African variant has also emerged.

Q: WHAT IS CONCERNING ABOUT THE BRITISH VARIANT?

A: It has many mutations, almost two dozen, and eight are in the spike protein that the virus uses to bind and infect cells. The spike is the target of vaccines and antibodies.

Dr Ravi Gupta, a virus expert at the University of Cambridge in England, said model studies suggest that it may be up to two times more infectious than the version that has been more common in England so far. He and other researchers published a report about it on a website scientists use to quickly share developments, but it has not been formally reviewed or published in a journal.

Q: DOES IT MAKE PEOPLE SICK OR MORE LIKELY TO DIE?

A: “There is no indication that either is true, but clearly those are two issues that we have to keep an eye on,” Landrigan said. As more patients become infected with the new strain, “they will know pretty soon if the new strain makes people sick.”

A WHO outbreak expert, Maria Van Kerkhove, said that “the information we have so far is that there is no change” in the type of disease or its severity.

Q: WHAT DO MUTATIONS MEAN FOR TREATMENTS?

A: A couple of cases in England raise concerns that mutations in some of the new emerging variants could damage the potency of drugs that deliver antibodies to block the virus and prevent it from infecting cells.

Studies are being done on the antibody response, Van Kerkhove said.

One drug manufacturer, Eli Lilly, said tests in her lab suggest her drug remains fully active.

Q: WHAT ABOUT THE VACCINES?

A: Scientists believe that current vaccines will continue to be effective against the variant, but are working to confirm this. On Wednesday, British officials reiterated that there is no data to suggest that the new variant harms the effectiveness of available vaccines.

Vaccines induce broad immune system responses in addition to prompting the immune system to produce antibodies against the virus, so they are expected to continue to work, several scientists said.

Q: WHAT CAN I DO TO REDUCE MY RISK?

A: Follow the advice to wear a mask, wash your hands frequently, maintain social distance, and avoid crowds, say public health experts.

“The bottom line is that we need to suppress transmission” of the coronavirus, said WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

“The more we allow it to spread, the more mutations will occur.”

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