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Beirut, September 15 (IANS): We are all very familiar with the seasonal patterns of some respiratory viruses and now scientists suggest that Covid-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, will likely follow suit and become seasonal in countries with temperate climates, but only when herd immunity is achieved.
Until that time, Covid-19 will continue to circulate throughout the stations. These findings, published in Frontiers in Public Health magazine, highlight the absolute importance of the public health measures needed at this time to control the virus.
“Covid-19 is here to stay and will continue to cause outbreaks throughout the year until herd immunity is achieved,” said study researcher Hassan Zaraket of the American University of Beirut in Lebanon.
Therefore, the public must learn to live with him and continue to practice the best prevention measures, among which are the use of masks, physical distancing, hand hygiene and avoiding meetings ”, added Zaraket.
Contributing author Hadi Yassine, from the University of Qatar in Doha, claims and asserts that there could be multiple waves of Covid-19 before herd immunity is achieved.
“We know that many respiratory viruses follow seasonal patterns, especially in temperate regions,” Yassine said.
For example, influenza and several types of coronaviruses that cause the common cold are known to peak in winter in temperate regions, but circulate year-round in tropical regions.
The authors reviewed these seasonal viruses, examining the viral and host factors that control their seasonality, as well as the latest insights into the stability and transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
The researchers explain that the survival of the virus in air and on surfaces, people’s susceptibility to infection, and human behaviors, such as overcrowding indoors, differ seasonally due to changes in temperature and humidity.
These factors influence the transmission of respiratory viruses at different times of the year. However, compared to other respiratory viruses such as influenza, Covid-19 has a higher transmission rate (R0), at least in part due to circulation in a population largely inexperienced in immunity.
This means that, unlike influenza and other respiratory viruses, the factors that govern the seasonality of viruses cannot yet stop the spread of Covid-19 in the summer months, but once herd immunity is achieved through from natural infections and vaccines, the R0 should decrease substantially. making the virus more susceptible to seasonal factors.
“Whether or not our predictions are true remains to be seen in the future. But we believe it is highly likely, given what we know so far, that Covid-19 will eventually become seasonal, like other coronaviruses,” Zaraket noted.
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