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The UK government could have protected the lives of more older people by allowing young people to contract the coronavirus, a leading scientist said.
Professor Graeme Ackland, who has written a report in the British medical journal, He said closing schools was more effective in slowing the spread of the disease, but that overall it caused more deaths than if schools remained open.
As a second wave takes over the UK and Europe, and new blockades are being considered, Prof Ackland said that achieving herd immunity quickly was the best way to keep the overall death toll low unless a vaccine was discovered. .
The computer simulation professor at the University of Edinburgh said The National that to save lives it would be better if a higher proportion of young people were infected because they have less chance of dying and it would protect the elderly in the long term.
This would allow for herd immunity, which is commonly believed to be achieved when 40% of the population is infected.
Severe blocks would only suppress the disease, and the current second wave will soon be followed by a third and fourth unless a vaccine arrives within a year, according to the report. She re-analyzed the modeling work done by Imperial College at the beginning of the outbreak, which is said to have played a major role in the government’s decision to order a shutdown in March.
The University of Edinburgh report also suggested that relaxing social distancing among those under 70 would lead to fewer deaths among the elderly.
“If you consider that 40 percent are unavoidable, then the way to minimize the number of deaths is to organize it so that the people who are not going to die are the ones who do get the disease,” said Professor Ackland. He said.
A group of international scientists has also called for a change in coronavirus strategy to allow young and healthy people to resume normal lives while protecting the vulnerable.
The so-called Great Barrington Declaration, written by three academics from Oxford, Stanford and Harvard universities and signed by hundreds of other scientists, also advocated allowing Covid to spread in low-risk groups to achieve herd immunity.
Worldwide there have been 36.2 million infections and 1,057,000 deaths from Covid-19, including 42,515 deaths in Britain.
It is suggested that a short, acute stroke of infection might be the best way to keep the mortality rate low.
“School closures reduce the number of Covid-19 replications but with the unexpected effect of increasing the total number of deaths,” the report said, Effect of school closings on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019.
“The isolation of young people would increase the total number of deaths, although it would be postponed to a second wave and the following ones.”
The report predicted that between 15 and 40 million people would be infected without an immediate vaccine.
With a death rate of 1%, that would cause 200,000 deaths.
“If you can maneuver those 20 million people into the younger population, then you can reduce the number of deaths,” said Professor Ackland, 58.
Based on the current Covid model, the report said that social distancing among all age groups reduced the number of infections “but increased the total number of deaths, compared to social distancing of those over 70 only.”
On this basis, it would be better to allow younger people to become infected with minimal social distancing, thus establishing a herd immunity that would protect older people.
The report suggested that the national shutdown had only delayed the long-term damage of Covid-19, but had prevented the intensive care beds of the National Health Service from being overwhelmed.
But the shutdown, according to the report, “prolonged the epidemic, in some cases resulting in more long-term deaths.”
This happened because Covid deaths are “highly skewed towards older age groups” and without a vaccine “none of the proposed mitigation strategies in the UK would reduce the expected total number of deaths below 200,000.”
Just before the shutdown in March, the British government had a choice to save lives or protect the NHS.
“What the model was telling them was that they had to make a decision,” said Professor Ackland.
“Do you want to save lives or do you want to save the NHS? Which one do you want to prioritize?
“It was a horrible decision they had to make and it seems they have decided to save the NHS.”
But he said the choice would be correct if a successful vaccine were developed within a year.
“The caveat of this report is that if there is a vaccine now and no one else dies, then it is probably quite sensible to close schools,” said Professor Ackland.
“But if there is no vaccine it was a bad idea because there will be a second wave, which is happening now.
“And if government interventions suppress the second wave as strongly as they suppress the first, then there will be a third wave and maybe a fourth.”
Updated: October 8, 2020 02:30 am
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