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The West Nile virus spreads most efficiently in the U.S. at temperatures between 24-25 degrees Celsius (75.2-77 degrees Fahrenheit), a new study published today in eLife shows.
The results suggest that climate change could lead to a further spread of the West Nile virus in some places, while it could cause a decrease in others, and provide information on where and when these changes could occur.
“As the climate warms, it is critical to understand how changes in temperature will affect the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases,” says lead author Marta Shocket, who was a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University, California, USA. , At the time the study was conducted. carried out, and is now a Postdoctoral Researcher at the University of California, Los Angeles, USA.
To do this, Shocket and his colleagues developed models to assess the impact of temperature on six mosquito-borne viruses, four of which occur in the U.S. These viruses (West Nile viruses, St. Louis encephalitis, Encephalitis Eastern and Western Equine, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever) were pooled for this study, as they share some of the same carrier mosquito species.
The models used laboratory experiments that measured how different temperatures affect mosquito survival, bite rate, reproduction, development, and virus transmission capacity. The team validated their West Nile model using data on human virus transmission in the U.S. They found that West Nile virus is more easily transmitted at moderate temperatures, while extreme temperatures limit where its mosquito carriers they could live and successfully transmit the virus.
“Most of the viruses covered in this work come from more temperate areas than the most commonly studied tropical diseases,” explains Shocket. “We compared these results with those for tropical diseases such as malaria and dengue and found that the optimal temperatures and cold thermal limits for virus spread are colder. This means that viruses spread more efficiently at colder temperatures. compared to more tropical diseases, unsurprisingly. “
The results suggest that mosquito-borne diseases could take a higher toll in the US as temperatures rise, especially since the majority of the population (70%) live in places that are currently below optimal temperatures. and they will likely see further transmission with global warming. This compares with the 30% of the population living in places where summer temperatures are above the optimal temperature, meaning that transmission will likely decrease with global warming. Temperature rises could also extend the virus transmission seasons earlier in the spring and later in the fall.
“Climate change is destined to increase the transmission of West Nile virus and other mosquito-borne viruses in much of the US,” concludes lead author Erin Mordecai, assistant professor of biology at Stanford University. “But these diseases also depend on human contact with mosquitoes that also come into contact with wildlife, so factors such as human land use, mosquito control, mosquito and virus adaptations, and the emergence of new viruses makes predicting the future of mosquito-borne diseases challenging. “
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Reference
The document ‘Transmission of West Nile virus and five other mosquito-borne viruses in temperate zones reaches its peak at temperatures between 23 and 26ºC’ can be freely accessed online at https: /
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About eLife
eLife is a non-profit organization created by donors and led by researchers. Our mission is to accelerate discovery by operating a research communication platform that encourages and recognizes the most responsible behaviors. We work in three main areas: editorial, technology and research culture. Our goal is to publish work of the highest standards and importance in all areas of biology and medicine, including ecology, epidemiology, and global health, while exploring creative new ways to improve the way that science is assessed and published. investigation. We also invest in open source technological innovation to modernize the scientific publishing infrastructure and improve online tools to share, use and interact with new results. eLife receives financial support and strategic guidance from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, the Max Planck Society, and Wellcome. Learn more at https: /
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