Researchers estimate the impacts of COVID-19 on the US healthcare community.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare workers have been at the forefront of the battle against the life-threatening disease. Unfortunately, they are not immune to the effects of the disease. Many have contracted COVID-19 and some have died.

In an article published on December 4, 2020 in the magazine Plus one, Junaid Razzak, MBBS, Ph.D., director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Global Emergency Care, and their colleagues calculated the impacts of COVID-19 on the U.S. healthcare community based on the observed number of infections from health workers during the early years. phase of the pandemic in Hubei, China and Italy, areas that experienced spikes in COVID-19 cases before the United States.

“We looked at what was known about other countries before the pandemic and modeled the health impact of frontline healthcare workers in this country to see what gains would be possible here if known interventions were applied,” says Razzak, who is professor of emergency medicine at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.

Using a Monte Carlo risk analysis simulation model to predict outcomes and based on data from China and Italy, Razzak and his team estimate that between 53,000 and 54,000 U.S. hospital workers could become infected with COVID-19 during the course of the pandemic. The team projects the number of U.S. hospital worker deaths for the same time period at roughly 1,600.

The researchers’ estimates also suggest that if healthcare workers considered high-risk, including those over the age of 60, wore appropriate personal protective equipment, such as gowns and masks, the number of infections would drop to about 28,000 and the number of deaths between 700 and 1000. If hospital workers aged 60 and over are restricted from direct patient care, the projected figures could drop to 2,000 infected and 60 deaths.

Razzak and his team say that since the current mortality from COVID-19 among US healthcare workers has exceeded their original estimates, it shows that this group carries, and will continue to bear, a significant burden of disease due to COVID -19.

“Our analysis shows that the continued and widespread use of personal protective equipment, along with limiting the exposure of hospital workers over the age of 60, are necessary steps this country must take now,” says Razzak. “These efforts will save the lives of healthcare workers who can then save the lives of other people infected with COVID-19.”