Covid: UK coronavirus alert level moves to 4

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The UK’s coronavirus alert level is rising from 3 to 4, which means transmission is “high or increasing exponentially,” its medical directors said.

It comes after the government’s scientific advisor warned that there could be 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day in mid-October without further action.

The prime minister will make a statement in the Commons on Tuesday.

On Monday, 4,368 more daily cases were reported in the UK, up from 3,899.

Another 11 people have also died within 28 days of obtaining a positive test, though these numbers tend to be lower over the weekend and on Mondays due to reporting delays.

In a statement confirming their recommendation, the medical directors of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland said that cases now “are increasing rapidly and probably exponentially in significant parts of the four nations.”

They urged people to follow government guidelines “to avoid excess deaths and exceptional pressure on the NHS” during the fall and winter.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the move reflects “the significant change in the current threat posed by the coronavirus.”

“This country now faces a tipping point in its response and it is vital that everyone play their part now to stop the spread of the virus and protect lives,” he said.

The alert level, recommended by the Joint Biosafety Center, was lowered from level 4 to 3 on June 19, indicating that the virus was “in general circulation” but that there could be a “gradual relaxation of restrictions.”

The proposed update comes as the prime minister prepares to chair an emergency Cobra meeting on Tuesday morning.

Speaking earlier in Downing Street, along with Chief Medical Adviser Professor Chris Whitty, Sir Patrick Vallance said: “At this time we believe the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days.

“Yes, and that’s a big yes, but if that continues unabated, and this grows, doubling every seven days … if that continues, it would end up with something like 50,000 cases in mid-October a day.

“Fifty thousand cases a day would be expected to lead a month later, say in mid-November, to more than 200 deaths a day.

“The challenge, therefore, is to ensure that the doubling time does not remain at seven days.

“That takes speed, it takes action and it takes enough to be able to take that down.”

The move to Level 4 should come as no surprise given the warning from the UK’s two top pandemic advisers this morning.

Infections are on the rise, although some experts wonder if the situation is as dire as Professor Chris Witty and Sir Patrick Vallance pointed out when they raised the possibility of 50,000 cases a day in mid-October.

Cases were always expected to increase at this time of year when respiratory viruses tend to circulate more along with the continued reopening of society.

Certainly, the trajectory of countries like France and Spain is not as marked as the worst scenario proposed.

But it is clear that the government wants to act early this time; One of the big criticisms is that they were slow to introduce the blockade in March, which resulted in more deaths.

Level 4 paves the way for additional restrictions to be introduced with an announcement scheduled for Tuesday.

Officials are well aware that a good balance must be navigated, so a complete lockdown is not anticipated.

Schools will certainly be protected.

But any restriction comes at a cost to society. If you go too far, the risk is that the cure will be worse than the disease.

Professor Whitty and Sir Patrick also said:

• The increase in the number of cases cannot be attributed to an increase in tests, as there is also an “increase in the positivity of the tests performed”.
• An estimated 70,000 people in the UK currently have the disease, and around 6,000 a day contract it (according to an ONS study)
• Less than 8% of the population has been infected to date, although the figure could reach 17% in London.
• Despite the fact that in different parts of the UK cases were increasing at different rates, and some age groups were more affected than others, the evolution of the situation had to be seen as a problem for all without exception.
• Evidence from other countries showed that infections “were not just sticking in the younger age groups,” but were “moving up the age range.”
• Increased transmission is a serious “six-month problem that we have to tackle collectively,” but science will eventually “come to our rescue.”
• The virus is no milder now than it was in April, despite claims to the contrary.
• It is possible that “some vaccine will be available before the end of the year in small quantities for certain groups”, but “the first half of next year” is much more likely

On Sunday, the prime minister held a meeting in Downing Street with Professor Whitty, Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Matt Hancock to discuss possible additional measures for England, ahead of an expected announcement Tuesday.

BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg said new restrictions are likely in the hospitality sector, and pubs and restaurants may be told to close for two weeks.

However, he said there was a “vigorous debate” within the government and that forcing the venues to close earlier was another possibility.

Labor has urged the government to avoid a second national lockdown, saying this would cause “unimaginable harm” to the economy and the well-being of the people.

It is not a question of “if”.

Downing Street will have to introduce additional restrictions to try to curb the dramatic resurgence of the coronavirus.

You should only have dipped into a minute or two of the sober report from the government’s top doctor and scientist on Monday morning to see why.

However, what is not yet resolved is exactly what, exactly when, and indeed exactly where these restrictions will be.

This is what is important to know:

The government is not considering a new blockade across the country at this time.

The prime minister is unwilling to tell everyone to stay home like he did from his Downing Street desk in March.

The ministers have no intention of closing schools again.

Nor, at this time, do they plan to tell all but non-essential businesses to close again.

What is likely is some kind of additional limits in our huge hospitality sector.

Read more about Laura here.

Restrictions for households to mix indoors will be extended to all of Northern Ireland starting at 18:00 BST on Tuesday.

Areas in North West England, West Yorkshire, the Midlands and four more counties in South Wales will also face more local restrictions from Tuesday.

And “almost certainly” additional lockdown restrictions will be put in place in Scotland in the coming days, Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon said.

“Hopefully this will be with the four-nation lineup, but if necessary, it will have to happen without that,” he said.

Welsh Health Minister Vaughan Gething added: “It may be the case that action will be taken across the UK, but that will require all four governments to exercise our varying share of power and responsibility to do so.”

Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke with the leaders of the delegated administrations on Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, the health secretary announced a new exemption from local restrictions in England for formal and informal childcare arrangements, covering those who care for children under 14 or vulnerable adults.