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Nearly 100,000 people are infected with COVID-19 every day in England, a new study found, warning that “something must change before Christmas.”
Scientists at Imperial College London estimated that there are around 96,000 new cases of COVID-19 in England every day and that the outbreak is doubling every nine days.
The study, funded by the Department of Health, saw scientists taking samples from 85,000 randomly selected people in England in late October. It found that about one in 128 people is infected with the deadly virus.
“The rate of growth that we’re seeing is really quite fast,” said Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College London, one of the study’s leaders.
They reported that rates were increasing among all age groups, including those at highest risk: They noted a tripling in rates of COVID-19 in people ages 55 to 64 and a doubling in those over 65.
“Our data shows that there is no reason to expect that exponential increase to change over the next several weeks, regardless of what we do,” Riley cautioned. “New cases will turn into hospitalizations.” It was unclear whether the recently imposed restrictions in northern England would be enough to stop the spiraling spread of the virus, he added.
Riley also said that if politicians were considering tougher measures, “the results (of the study) argue for something sooner rather than later” and added that “something must change before Christmas.”
Figures released by the government on Thursday revealed that another 24,700 cases had been confirmed in the past 24 hours.
The UK is the hardest hit country in Europe in terms of its death toll, the tally rising by 310 on Wednesday to 45,675.
To curb the second wave of the disease, the government has implemented a multi-tiered system with local areas enforced under strict restrictions based on their epidemiological situation. But Downing Street is now under pressure to do more.
Mark Walport, a former chief scientific officer, told the BBC that with the current measures “there is little evidence that there is as much social distancing as when we cracked down on the first wave, so we know the risk is significant that the cases will continue to grow. “
On the other side of the Canal, French President Emmanuel Macron announced Wednesday night that a second national shutdown would take effect on Friday and last until December 1.
He said during his televised address that the spread of the virus has surpassed “even the most pessimistic projections” with up to 50,000 people infected each day and more than half of the country’s current intensive care beds occupied by COVID-19 patients.
Macron’s speech came just hours after German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a limited lockdown that would begin on November 2.
