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The number of prisoners suspected of having been infected with the coronavirus is more than five times the number of confirmed cases, public health experts revealed, amid cautious optimism that “explosive” outbreaks in prisons have been avoided.
The Justice Ministry released an analysis by Public Health England that said there was evidence of successful containment of the outbreak in prisons. But the document, written by Dr. Éamonn O’Moore, the national leader for health and justice at PHE, said that “while the current situation is cause for cautious optimism, significant levels of threat persist.”
PHE data showed that there were 304 laboratory-confirmed cases of Covid-19 in prisoners in England and Wales at the last count, as well as 1,783 “possible / probable” cases. The most up-to-date figures showed that there were 324 confirmed cases among prisoners at 5 p.m. Sunday.
The deaths of 15 prisoners and five prison officials have been directly or indirectly related to the coronavirus.
Prison staff have access to the evidence, but the document states that the testing for prisoners has been “limited and variable.”
Research shows that the most likely source of an outbreak is newcomers to prisons, and as a result, Moore suggests that specialized accommodation for new receptions or transfers and protective units will be required to protect the most vulnerable until at least late March 2021.
This would limit deaths to 100 during the period, the model suggests. There are 81,500 prisoners in England and Wales.
Moore writes: “While the prevalence level of infection in the community will likely decrease during the summer months as the pandemic wave stabilizes and then subsides, the Covid-19 virus will continue to circulate and epidemiologists predict a risk of a second wave. or even a third wave before having a vaccine.
“These are important considerations for policymakers to determine how to lift current restrictions on normal life in the community, but they will also be a consideration for prisons the rest of the year.”
Observations made in the document are understood to be in part behind the reasons why so few prisoners have been released early under emergency measures announced by the government on April 4.
The Justice Ministry said it would release up to 4,000 prisoners who were within two months of their release date and who had passed a risk assessment. But on Monday, Attorney General Robert Buckland revealed that only 33 prisoners had been released, including pregnant prisoners.
Buckland told the House of Commons that there were positive signs that the prison approach was working, although he warned: “We are not out of the woods yet.”
PHE and the prison service have estimated that a restrictive regime introduced in prisons, as well as reducing prison transfers, has reduced contacts on prison property by up to 50% compared to the pre-pandemic regime.
Prison reform activists continue to call for more prisoners to be released, warning that “the clock is ticking.”
