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The third week of December 2020 should go down in history as a lesson in how countries tried to combine military might, technology, and messaging through the media to prevent conflict, which on the surface seems contradictory. Over the past week, US President Donald Trump tweeted. threats against Iran, IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi also warned Iran, and US and Israeli submarines were reported to be heading into nearby Iran. For the average person observing the region, the conclusion is obvious: we are on the brink of war. However, the opposite may also be true: the actions taken in Washington and Jerusalem are aimed at preventing conflict. How all this happened is complex. Relations between Iran and the United States have been marked by growing tensions in recent years. Iran continues to try to defy the United States and seeks to get US forces out of Iraq. The Trump administration walked away from the Iran Accord in 2018 and has tried to use sanctions to isolate and impoverish the regime. He also sought to sanction Iranian allies and raise awareness of Iran’s arms trafficking to Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. That has meant that the United States Navy intercepted several ships carrying weapons to the Houthis, and the United States even established the “petting zoo” in Washington to display Iranian weapons such as ballistic missiles and drones that were used to attack Saudi Arabia. 2019: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias began firing rockets at US forces in Iraq and also at Saudi Arabia. Iran mined ships in the Gulf of Oman. It threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and has continued to showcase new missiles, a military satellite, drones and naval weapons. It also continues to “sink” a mock-up of a US aircraft carrier and harass US ships in the Persian Gulf. In September 2019, Iran used drones and cruise missiles to attack Saudi Arabia. In Iraq, Iran empowered Hashd al-Shaabi, mostly Shiite militias that are part of the Iraqi security forces, to attack US facilities. An American contractor was killed in December 2019 and three members of the US-led coalition in March 2020, the United States carried out airstrikes in response. The Trump doctrine has emphasized that the United States will respond if US soldiers are injured. The United States also killed IRGC Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Iran has promised revenge. Iran fired ballistic missiles at the Ain al-Asad airbase in Iraq and Erbil in January 2020. It also had its militias fire dozens of 107mm. Katyushas at the US facility in Iraq, particularly the embassy in Baghdad. The United States has twice warned that it will close the embassy as a prelude to air strikes. All this brings us to December 23, 2020. “Our embassy in Baghdad was attacked on Sunday by several rockets. Three rockets were not launched. Guess where they were from: IRAN. We now hear rumors of additional attacks on Americans in Iraq, ”Trump wrote. “A friendly health advice for Iran: If an American dies, I will hold Iran responsible. Think about it ”. The United States has said this before, in 2018, after the harassment of the US Consulate in Basra, and in 2019 and early 2020. Trump has warned Iranian IRGC speedboats in the Persian Gulf that they will sink if After the US $ 180 million Global Hawk drone was shot down by Iran’s third Khordad air defense in June 2020, Trump came close to attacking Iran. He was stopped at the last minute because no Americans had been killed. He opposes war with Iran and mocked former national security adviser John Bolton for being a hawk against Iran. Trump’s warning on December 23 was to prevent Iran from hitting the Americans when the anniversary of Soleimani’s death rolls around. Iran covered Iraq with posters of Soleimani martyrdom. Tensions are high. The United States sent the USS Georgia, a large guided missile submarine, to the region. In November, the US also sent B-52s to the Middle East.
“WE ARE hearing more and more threats against Israel coming from Iran,” Kochavi said on December 21. He said Iran would pay a high price for any attack. Reports said that an Israeli submarine was also heading towards Iran, via the Suez Canal, as a kind of warning. The tensions between Israel and Iran are similar to the tensions between the United States and Iran. Israel had carried out 1,000 airstrikes against Iranian targets, according to a January 2019 interview. That was far more than in 2016. In 2017, Israel used its Arrow system for the first time to stop an Iranian S-200 missile. In 2018, David’s Honda was used for the first time, Iran has fired salvoes from Syria. Iran tried to move the third Khordad system to Syria in April 2018 and flew a drone into Israeli airspace in February 2018. It has smuggled weapons through Iraq into Syria, including ballistic missiles. It has built tunnels at Imam Ali’s base in Albukamal, and tensions with Hezbollah have increased. In the fall of 2019, Israel discovered Hezbollah tunnels, and tensions rose again in July 2020 when Hezbollah claimed that Israel killed one of its members in Syria. Israel has warned Iran, increasingly since December 2018, not to entrench itself in Syria. Iran has not listened, but withdrew dozens of IRGC members from Syria. When Iranian nuclear engineer Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in November, Iran vowed revenge. He also promised to locate those responsible for the July 2020 sabotage at his Natanz nuclear facility.
THIS IS what was built on this week’s messages from Israel and the United States. Iran does not want a conflict on the eve of the Biden administration. He knows that the new US administration has hinted at a return to the Iran deal and engagement with Iran. Tehran has no reason to burn those bridges, but it wants to show that it can attack the United States in Iraq. But his Foreign Ministry and Iraqi militia leaders like Qais Khazali say they did not attack the US embassy on Sunday. This is the message dance between Washington, Tehran and Jerusalem. The question is when the music will stop.
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