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The continued provision of health care, education and other essential services could be threatened in January if current Covid-19 trends continue, public health officials warned.
Should the current pattern of virus transmission continue, there are “every reason” that there could be significant challenges, even in early January, that could threaten healthcare and other non-Covid services, according to the director. physician, Dr. Tony Holohan.
The virus is spreading across the country, in all age groups, Dr. Holohan said at a briefing by the National Public Health Emergency Team.
“We are now receiving reports of major outbreaks in social settings, including work settings, Christmas parties and funerals. I can’t stress enough how important it is to limit your interactions now. The consequences of not doing so will be an exponential growth in January, a substantial increase in hospitalizations and risk to life ”.
The five-day moving average is now 387 boxes a day, he said.
The breeding number, a measure of how many people a case infects, now sits between 1.1 and 1.3, according to Professor Philip Nolan, chairman of Nphet’s epidemiological modeling advisory group.
Festive threats
“We are particularly concerned about the elderly and vulnerable adults, who have protected themselves during the second wave and are now at risk during the holiday season.”
If this continues, there could be 700-1,200 cases per day by the second week of January, “if not earlier,” he said.
Professor Nolan said there were “very strong and worrying” early warning signs of a renewed increase in the level of transmission of the virus.
The number of hospitalized patients was slowly decreasing, while the number of ICUs was not decreasing.
Demand for tests is increasing as is the positivity rate, up to almost 4 percent.
The trend in cases is “worryingly similar” to what happened in September, he said, with a growth rate of 1.5% to 2%.
The figures are a clear warning that what people were doing in the first week of December was “too much and we have to stop now.”
Overvoltage hazard
“We are now at high risk of a January surge and the elderly and vulnerable are a key concern, but this is not inevitable,” he concluded.
Dr. Holohan confirmed that Nphet had made recommendations to the government after their meeting on Thursday, which will be considered by the Cabinet next Tuesday.
He said that Taoiseach Micheál Martin had called him on Thursday and provided a “general understanding” of the recommendations made by Nphet.
He declined to say what the recommendations were, saying it was important to allow time and space for the deliberative process to take place.
The team reported three other deaths of Covid-19 patients. This brings the total number of deaths in the pandemic to 2,143.
Nphet also reported 484 confirmed cases of the disease, bringing the total number of cases in the Republic to 77,678.
Of the new cases, 150 are in Dublin, 45 in Wexford, 40 in Cork, 32 in Donegal, 29 in Limerick, and the remaining 188 cases are spread across 20 other counties.
As of Thursday afternoon, there were 200 Covid-19 patients in the hospital, including 31 in the ICU. There were 30 additional hospitalizations in the last 24 hours.
The 14-day national incidence has increased to 94.2 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Donegal has the highest incidence in the county with 246.9 followed by Louth with 207.9. Clare has the lowest incidence at 25.2.
