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This document assesses the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to the general population and to medically vulnerable people in the EU / EEA and the UK, from the perspective of the upcoming holiday season at the end of the year.
Following an expansion of non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented by several Member States beginning in late October, a recent general downward trend in the 14-day COVID-19 notification rate and weekly test positivity ratio for the EU / EEA and the UK has been observed. However, the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the EU / EEA and the UK remains high compared to the low levels seen during the summer.
The end-of-the-year holiday season is traditionally associated with activities such as social gatherings, shopping, and travel, which would pose significant additional risks to the intensified transmission of SARS-CoV-2. An aggravating factor is that there are reports of what has been described as “pandemic fatigue”, and some people are discouraged to follow recommended protective measures, especially during this period.
Lifting the measures too soon would result in an increase in cases and hospitalizations, and this would be particularly rapid if the measures were lifted abruptly. If response measures implemented in October or November were lifted on December 21, modeled projections suggest that a resurgence in COVID-19 hospitalizations could occur as early as the first week of January 2021. If response measures were lifted On December 7, it is projected that this increase could occur before December 24. In the current epidemiological situation in the EU / EEA and the UK, the earlier measures are lifted, the greater and faster the resulting increase in the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths could be, putting additional pressure on systems of health.
On the basis of the current epidemiological situation in most EU Member States, any adaptation of the measures should be carried out in a selective, proportionate and coordinated manner, according to the prevailing epidemiology and the vulnerability of the population at the level in which the measures are applied. These measures must be clearly communicated to mitigate the risk of increased transmission during the year-end season, also taking into account the social, personal and economic impact on the population.
What risk is being assessed
This document assesses the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to the general population and to medically vulnerable people in the EU / EEA and the UK, from the perspective of the upcoming holiday season at the end of the year. Given the current epidemiological situation and the measures in place, and anticipating the end-of-year meetings, events, mobility and fatigue reports to measures in the EU / EEA and the UK, the risk that the COVID-19 pandemic represents for the general population it is considered high. For vulnerable people, including the elderly and people with underlying medical conditions, the risk is assessed as very high.
