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Some tentative signs emerged on Friday to suggest that the coronavirus resurgence in the UK is stabilizing after wide-ranging restrictions were imposed.
In its weekly survey of new infections, the British statistics agency said the growth rate of the virus in England appeared to be slowing down when a new four-week lockdown took effect on November 5. And the British government’s main scientific advisory group said the virus’s reproductive rate dropped even before the latest lockdown.
At first glance, both indicators appear to contradict the close to 50% increase in the number of new infections to 33,470 that was recorded on Thursday. The record daily increase stoked fears about the current outbreak, although some experts said it could be due to the new city-wide testing program underway in Liverpool.
Like others in Europe, the four nations of the United Kingdom have reimposed restrictions in recent weeks to overcome the resurgence of the virus. With the rise in new infections, the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients has increased dramatically and so have deaths. On Thursday, the UK recorded another 563 virus-related deaths, bringing the total to just under 51,000, the highest in Europe.
In England, authorities imposed local restrictions on the areas that recorded the highest number of new cases, before the government changed tack and announced a national lockdown. Scientists said evidence on Friday suggested that local measures were having an impact on suppressing the virus.
The lockdown now in force in England is almost as restrictive as that of the spring. In addition to pushing a “stay home” message, the British government has closed pubs, restaurants and shops that sell items deemed non-essential, such as books, clothes and sneakers, until at least December 2. Unlike the spring closure, schools and universities, as well as construction sites and factories, remain open.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has expressed hope that the lockdown will bring the virus’s reproduction rate below 1, which would mean that the epidemic is slowing down. On Friday, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, or Sage, said the rate had fallen between 1 and 1.2 in the UK. For the last few weeks, Sage has put the R between 1.1 and 1.3.
The weekly infection survey from the Office for National Statistics also noted a decline in the growth rate of the virus. It found that some 654,000 people in private homes in England had COVID-19 between October 31 and November 6, or about 1.2% of the population.
Although the figures represent a jump of 618,700 people, or 1.1% of the population in the period of October 25 to 31, the agency said that “the rate of increase is slower than in previous weeks.”
The weekly survey, which assesses thousands of people whether they have coronavirus symptoms or not, covered the start of the latest lockdown in England.
The agency found that North West England, which includes the major cities of Liverpool and Manchester, had the highest rates of virus infections at 2.2% of the population, while noting that the spread in the community appeared to be decreasing.
Overall, he said the spread of the virus in England was increasing in the South East, South West, East Midlands and North East, while some other regions, including London, appeared to have stabilized.
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