Coronavirus: UK epidemic grows as R number surpasses 1



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Public health officials have warned of “worrying signs” of infection among the elderly, as an official measure indicated that the UK epidemic is growing again.

The R number rose to between 1 and 1.2 for the first time since March.

Any number above one indicates that the number of infections is increasing.

The number of new daily confirmed cases of the virus in the UK rose to 3,539 on Friday, up from more than 600 the day before.

The virus is still at much lower levels in the UK than it was at its peak in April, but a study of thousands of people in England found that cases were doubling every seven to eight days.

It found a marked increase in infections in the north and among young people.

Yvonne Doyle, Medical Director of Public Health England, said that while younger people account for the majority of new cases, “we are now beginning to see worrying signs of infections occurring in the elderly, who are at much higher risk of becoming seriously ill. “. “.

A PHE report says there has been “a particularly steep rise” in positive test results in those over 85 and, in the North West of England, an increase in those in that age group admitted to hospital .

However, although cases are increasing, the number of patients in the hospital remains virtually unchanged at 863.

Of those, 78 are hooked up to fans, according to the latest government figures.

Doyle cautioned people to follow social distancing rules, wash their hands regularly and cover their faces indoors.

Meanwhile, Birmingham will become the latest area to introduce new restrictions after a surge in cases.

The strictest restrictions now cover more than 1.75 million people in the west of Scotland, and as of Monday, the masks must be worn in shops in Wales.

However, closure restrictions will be further relaxed in Leicester on Tuesday so that the rules for businesses in the city are more in line with most of England, the Health Department said.

The city has been subject to stricter Covid-19 restrictions since June 29 after a spike in cases.

Across the UK, new laws on how many people can socialize are being introduced as of Monday in a bid to contain the rise in infections.

The “rule of six” will restrict indoor and outdoor gatherings in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Police warned that there was a “real risk” that some people would treat this weekend as a “holiday weekend” before the new restrictions came in.

John Apter, national president of the Police Federation of England and Wales, said it would be “incredibly irresponsible” at a time of increasing cases and that officers would “not apologize” for fining people where appropriate.

The increase in the R (reproduction) number, which describes how many more people each infected person transmits the virus to, is one of several measures that indicate that the virus is spreading more widely in the UK.

If the R number is greater than one, as now, the number of infected increases, and higher numbers indicate that the cases are multiplying more rapidly.

Three other large studies have also indicated a widespread resurgence of the coronavirus in the UK population.

‘A wake-up call for the nation’

The UK is entering a new stage in the coronavirus pandemic.

Since closing, we have been deciding how to react to the drop in cases. But now the R number has passed the crucial level of 1 for the first time since March and is backed by a wealth of data showing that cases are growing again.

This is not just limited to hotspots like Bolton – a government adviser told me that the increase was widespread across the country.

They said today was a “wake-up call” for the nation. There are already some signs that the number of people entering the hospital is starting to rise.

But this is not a repeat of the preparation for the lockdown. Cases are at a much lower level and growing more slowly.

Before closing, the R number was around three, and cases were doubling every three to four days. It’s about half now.

The coronavirus will be a big challenge until we have a vaccine.

So the defining question as we head into a potentially difficult winter is how to balance controlling the virus with moving on with our lives.

The REACT study of more than 150,000 volunteers in England, one of three new sources of community-level data, found “accelerated transmission” in late August and early September.

He said infection levels were increasing in England, but particularly in the North East, North West and Yorkshire.

And there were increases in positive cases in all age groups up to 65 years, with higher growth rates in those aged 18 to 24.

Professor Paul Elliott, head of the study at Imperial College London, said the data clearly shows “a worrying trend in coronavirus infections” where cases are growing rapidly in England and “are no longer concentrated in key workers”.

He said there was evidence of “an epidemic in the community” that was not the result of more people being tested.

The second dataset, from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that there were 39,700 new cases of the virus in England during the first week of September, 11,000 more than the previous week.

The ONS bases its figures on thousands of smear tests done at home, whether people have symptoms or not.

He did not estimate an increase in cases for the same week in Wales, but Prime Minister Mark Drakeford announced that people must now wear face masks in stores in response to the increase in the number of cases in recent days.

Katherine Kent of the ONS infection survey said the results suggested “an increase in Covid-19 infections in England over the past few weeks, with higher infection rates among young people aged 17 to 34”.

Nicola Sturgeon has warned that the average number of cases in Scotland has been “more than triple every three weeks” with some areas of particular concern, such as Lanarkshire and Greater Glasgow and Clyde.

And the third set of figures, from the Covid symptom study app, which tracks the health of nearly four million people in the UK, also suggests an increase in new cases since the end of August, the first time since mid-August. June there has been a significant increase in the number.

Oxford University Professor James Naismith said younger people would also have been affected to the same extent in January if the tests had been available.

“We know that medical treatment and scientific advances have improved significantly, so even with infection rates as bad as March and April, there will be far fewer deaths.

“The more people wash their hands and practice social distancing, especially by and around the vulnerable, the fewer deaths and illnesses we will see,” he said.

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