Shoppers may just count on end-of-summer offers and promotions after school this time of year, but the coronavirus pandemic has thrown the retail calendar out of the way, making year-over-year comparisons difficult.
“Changes in expenditure on school / college are the latest factor comparison compared to last year. We are in a period of constant change and uncertainty, which makes it increasingly important to look at in-store activity over time, instead of just one point at a time, “said Marshal Cohen, NPD Group’s chief adviser.
“Prime Day’s July loss will bring another layer of change to the 2020 holiday season, with retailers already prepared to compete with the event, effectively moving Black Friday by more than a month.”
Last year, Amazon.com Inc.’s AMZN,
the two-day Prime Day event took place on July 15 and July 16. This year, it has been moved to later in the year, although the date has not yet been announced.
Analysts have already predicted a bust for this year’s shopping season back to school, with many parents and school officials still working out plans
To look:The back-to-school shopping season will be a ‘dud’, says one analyst, but the NRF predicts a record-breaking
NPD notes a 3% year-over-year decline in dollar sales for general merchandise items for the week ending August 1st.
RetailNext has not ruled out the exclusive season for schools.
“It seems that shopping after school will be popular even in these uncertain times, although it may be in a phased approach,” wrote Susan Davidson, a retail consultant at RetailNext.
Cowen analysts also think the back-to-school season will be a “longer one”, but said it will be weakened by the current consumer situation.
“Cowen expects a back-to-school season with fewer purchases of clothing that are very promotional. Consumers will appreciate ‘dignity, comfort, active clothing and soft wear’ lock down, ” analysts said.
Cowen thinks Ulta Beauty Inc. ULTA,
will benefit from shifting away from clothing purchases during the season, and favors Target Corp. TGT,
thanks to its power in categories away from clothing, such as home and beauty. Target reported second-quarter revenue Wednesday.
More than half of respondents (52%) to the First Insight interview hosted by Cowen said they would not buy back-to-school this year.
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Target, Walmart Inc. WMT,
and other retailers have already announced store closures on Thanksgiving Day, which has become a major part of Black Friday’s store story.
As the calendar shifts from back-to-school to the holidays, Wells Fargo analysts see three headwinds in the retail sector: a stagnant recovery, the aforementioned uncertainty over unemployment and other benefits of government incentives and price increases for the holiday season, such as that of United Parcel Service Inc. UPS,
announced.
“Both UPS and FedEX have continued to increase the price increase (some sources in the industry cited as much as a bilingual price increase for some retailers) and have announced incremental holiday charges,” analysts said. “With the expectation of a significant channel change online this holiday season, this could be a significant margin wind in 2H.”
Before we get to the holidays, retailers will have to deal with a shopping season after school that doesn’t seem like it used to.
“With some families not yet deciding how their children will learn this fall, and many school districts still figuring out if and how they can safely reopen their doors to students, the traditional timeline for shopping can school hours are delayed and traditional back-to-school wallet shares can shift, ”said Wells Fargo.
The selected consumer consumer sector SPDR ETF XLY,
has received almost 16% for the year to date. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT,
is up 14.6%. And the S&P 500 index SPX,
is up 4.7% for the period.
.
